Research On Economics And Risk Evaluation Of Offshore Wind Power

With the new energy industry become a new economic growth point, wind power has gained the attention of the countries all over the world with its mature technology and low cost. Offshore wind power because of its close distances from the center of the power load and abundant resource gradually become a focus. Researching on economics and risk evaluation of offshore wind power aimed at providing theoretical basis for offshore wind power policy formulation and offshore wind power planning and management.Firstly, the scale, development planning, technology, policy support and etc between offshore wind power project in foreign countries and China were contrasted and analyzed. And the SWOT analysis of china’s offshore wind power project was completed to reveal the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.Secondly, the costs, benefits and overall economy were studied through three areas: the technology learning curve, the CDM project and policy. And by using technology learning curve this paper study learning effect’ impact on offshore wind power cost, and forecast the cost development. Then the influence of CDM project to offshore wind power’s benefits and the important of change of carbon price were discussed basis on the specific process of CDM project.Then the policies in finance, electricity and interconnection effected offshore wind power project economy were analyzed. The economic evaluation model of offshore wind was set up and completed economic evaluation by using the genetic algorithm improved RBF neural network.Finally, in logical order from resource assessment to the operation and maintenance, the risk of offshore wind power project was studied in six factors:the wind resource evaluation, construction installation, natural conditions, equipment and maintenance, management, policy and market. And the risk evaluation model matched the real trait was set up by using the genetic algorithm improved RBF neural network and the model was verified.