Analysis And Forecast Of Chongqing Real Estate Prices

Real estate is an important part of the whole social wealth, it is the development ofan important force in promoting industrialization and urbanization. Real estate pricesdetermine the wealth of society and residents, its fluctuations affect the safety of thefinancial system, also affects the macro economic stability and development. And thecurrent real estate development overheating phenomenon emerged in our country, realestate prices, real estate investment, commercial housing vacancy rate continues to rise.As Chongqing was approved for municipalities directly under the central government,the academic research on real estate area gradually shift to Chongqing, the current landsystem lead to the supply of land year after year of negative growth, combined with thecurrencies are super hair, lack of investment channels. And income doubled with theincrease of infrastructure must support prices. Present all the way in Chongqing realestate prices rising at the same time, the influence factors of Chongqing real estateprices are showing a rising trend.Traditional forecasting method is the classical multiple linear regression analysis,although this method is easy to understand, but there are also some problems: first, itcan not be real-time tracking response variables change; Second, the classical multiplelinear regression analysis model on the sample of a small amount of pathological data issensitive, tend to be affected by a small amount of pathological data fitting effect; Third,the classical multiple linear regression model to the amount of data is very large. Andthese problems is likely to lead to real estate developers make the wrong decisionanalysis, and affect the healthy development of national economy in China.According to the above problem, this paper proposes a new method, namely, basedon the gray relation theory and multivariate linear regression analysis of real estateforecasting model, to forecast Chongqing house prices. This method is first andforemost by gray correlation analysis of selection of the large contribution factor intothe multiple linear regression model, and then using multivariate regression method,classical linear regression model, model for the variable coefficient of goodness of fit,inspection significance test, the model of overall significance test, inspection, not significant factors by the stepwise regression method, using classical multiplelinear regression model to predict prices. The advantages of this method is that it cannot only avoid a small amount of pathological data on the effects of the fitting andrequires very little amount of data. Finally, the paper selected Chongqing real estateindustry as the analysis object and verified based on the gray relation theory andmultivariate linear regression analysis of the real estate the correctness of the model, theanalysis results show that this method can be a real estate business to predict housingsales price, in order to make the right decision analysis, the real estate developers haveimportant reference value and guiding significance.