Analysis On Factors Of Raw Milk Price Fluctuation In China

China’s dairy industry as a sunrise industry,in animal husbandry acts increasingly important role.As China’s raw milk dairy midstream,both reflect the value of raw milk production processes,but also the cost of performance of dairy processing sectors,with the performance of the supply and demand signals an important role in the price transmission process. With the rising demand for dairy products,dairy price fluctuations more direct impact on living standards.This article on China’s raw milk price volatility cycle research,analysis of supply and demand factors that influence price fluctuations in raw milk,raw milk in order to stabilize prices,guarantee the survival of dairy processing enterprises,farmers will never be provided for reference livelihoods,and to reap the benefit from promoting China’s dairy industry.In this paper,the integrated use of equilibrium price theory,farmers produce behavior theory,the theory of endogenous economic volatility,exogenous economic fluctuation theory building in line with the basic theory of fluctuations in the price of raw milk;in May2006to October2013acquisition of the monthly price of raw milk data for the study,through OLS regression,Census X12seasonal adjustment,time series analysis,systems analysis and other analysis of the general characteristics of the raw milk price fluctuations,seasonal fluctuations in the price of raw milk characteristics.Firstly,around the topic of raw milk prices and the volatility of the milk,raw milk prices,price volatility of raw materials to define the connotation;then around the raw milk price formation theory and the theory of fluctuations in the price of raw milk characterize mechanisms.By describing the basic situation of raw milk market,producer prices and trends through time series analysis of the phenomenon of price fluctuations in raw milk statistical description;Finally,the concept of price volatility in this paper is currently divided price fluctuation cycle and simple expectations. On the basis of the status of raw milk on the analysis of price fluctuations,mainly due to further explore the formation of such fluctuations.From the perspective of supply and demand,the transmission mechanism of internal and external shocks mechanism framework to analyze the main factors of raw milk price fluctuations. The main factors affecting distribution of internal conduction mechanism is the main raw milk production and supply behavior of bargaining power,the cost of production of raw milk,dairy business acquisitions,raw milk market interests,dairy consumer behavior;major factors external shock mechanism there macroeconomic fluctuations,government regulation,urban and rural incomes,foreign dairy exports,and other unexpected events.By constructing a polynomial distributed lag model checking elements influence the direction and clear impact factors.Then through the analysis results,the stability of raw milk price policy recommendations.