An Empirical Study Of Chinese Macro-Financial Stability Index System

In today’s highly developed economic globalization, the international financialcrisis occurs frequently, affecting the economic development of many countries, onceagain attracted the attention of national experts and scholars, but also for financialstability issues to a new study climax. China is to deepen financial reform process, thecontinuous improvement of the financial system structure, improve the system offinancial market supervision, financial stability is specially critical, therefore, requiresa high degree of financial stability concerns.At the theoretical level, the studies on financial stability is mostly focused on theanalysis of financial stability connotation to proceed, and most of the theoreticalaspects of the research results or start the internal mechanism of financial instabilityfrom occurring, and in the analysis of their financial instability, it is mainly based onthe perspective of the causes and consequences of the start. But on the application, theindex system for macro-financial stability empirical studies generally based onprincipal component analysis, comparative static angle state space were analyzed, noconsideration of the dynamic between each index system from a system, therefore,through research with our macro-financial stability policy to improve the financialstability theory and some practical significance, but also for China’s economicpolicymakers have provided some valuable suggestions, hoping to further aspects ofmacro-financial stability of our country do out of these efforts.Based on the study abroad financial stability and financial instability on bothpositive and negative basis, building evaluation index system of macro-financialstability, the main use of various indicators2000-2010132years of monthly data asthe basis, and application of entropy Law and multivariate GARCH models for eachindex system for assigning weights and relevance of empirical research, and focuseson the introduction of dynamic portfolio theory to further explore aspects ofmacro-financial stability of our country, to build a more suitable for our macro-financial stability index, based on a literature-based early warning system forthe stability of the country has made some macro-financial division, this area is thefocus of this study.On the basis described above, the use of SPSS, EVIEWS, MATLAB software suchas the results of empirical analysis was consistent with China’s reality ofmacro-financial stability condition. Based on the study of macro-financial stability athome and abroad and the financial stability to do a simple summary: This will be ourmacro-financial stability index system is divided into three systems, but also for eachof the three factors made the system weight analysis, and macro-financial stabilityindex system for determining the weights of terms, can be very obvious to theimportance of the individual indicators and the role of the entire index system to showup, it can provide some reference value for China’s economic decision-makers, andmake our country in terms of macro-prudential management can do reasonably avoidfinancial stability, so that we can make the adjustments that affect the financialstability of the larger trend of better risk diversification. Therefore, we need to buildin time to protect the financial stability mechanism to coordinate the work of thecharacteristics of their own circumstances, and in accordance with the currentfinancial situation, the timely disposal and to develop crisis management programscan effectively alleviate the financial pressure to adjust the impact of macro-financialstability management policies, to strengthen cooperation between the variousfinancial regulatory authorities, so co-operation between regulators andmacroeconomic policy management, for both their own situation in the establishmentof measures with international standards as soon as possible, and better safeguard thefinancial stable.Which is mainly manifested in inadequate, because the theory of quantitativeanalysis of existing research less financial stability, taking into account the feasibilitystudies and empirical analysis methods operability, macro-financial stability index forbuilding without a specific classification system, This article is therefore simplified toreflect the three systems, which may not be for China’s macro-financial stability, toachieve a comprehensive index system, and each system is also no way to contain allthe variables indicators. This requires a more in-depth exploration of further researchin this area in the future.