Study On The Measurement Of China’s Capital Account Openness And Risk

Since China entered WTO, economic, financial development is rapid, with the accelerating pace of globalization, in2010, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) more than Japan, become the second largest economy in the world be worthy of the name. With the continuous deepening of steady economic growth in China, the RMB exchange reform policy, maintain the basic stability of the RMB as a settlement, a medium of exchange, payment means and storage means, not only to show strong influence in our neighboring countries and regions, but also in the international arena surface is constantly expanding, the RMB internationalization is quietly. The opening of the capital will promote the RMB foreign holding and circulation, the expansion of supply, to promote the internationalization of RMB has. But by2008, the impact of the global financial crisis, the world’s major economies generally implemented quantitative easing, dollar, euro, yen and other major international monetary competitive devaluation, the renminbi has a strong performance, the continued appreciation, in this context, China’s capital account controls once let go, in the face of massive capital inflow surges, our capital market and the financial system will suffer serious impact. A lesson, the teacher of the future, Japan, Russia, Brazil and India all the four countries on this issue to provide enough experience change unpredictably, in the face of the international financial turmoil, the loss of capital controls on capital flight barrier countries show weakness, a series of financial problems caused by continuous fermentation, have a negative impact, so far have not completely eliminated. On their real economies therefore, control and open the capital projects has been the focus of the economics circles, this paper take this as the object of study, analysis of the benefits and risks of capital account opening, the importance and methods to construct the currency crisis early warning models to the opening of the capital account, this relates to our country economy health movement and financial stability issues, propose meaningful risk prevention measures and specific strategy.Thoughts and structure of this paper follows the logical line: Introduction→summary of the theory of capital account opening→Study on the measurement of the opening of the capital account→Analysis of the risk of capital account opening Development strategy of China’s capital account opening. The following is specific content:The first part is the introduction, mainly describes the achievements of foreign capital project open related research, and gives the basic idea of this paper. The second part is the theoretical foundation, introduced the concept of the opening of the capital account and monetary crisis, economic effect and to the opening of capital projects including two aspects of income and risk theory. The third part in the foundation of analyzing the historical development and current situation of China’s capital account opening, the estimates of China’s current capital account openness. The fourth part to our country six years2006-2011’s internal and external economic data as the research object, the degree of risk of China’s capital account opening of the first composite index using KLR method to calculate, the establishment of currency crisis early warning index system in china. The fifth part summarizes the research above sections, combined with the conditions of capital account opening analysis of China’s capital projects to expand constraints open, which is the starting point of focus and policy policy put forward China’s capital projects to further expand. In this paper, the use of open and restricted two methods the extent of China’s capital account liberalization measure, obtains our country’s capital project open at present in the middle opening level, and constantly in the twists and accelerate open conclusion. To our country from2006to ten2011economic data to build up the risk early warning model for the index, calculate the alert level of our country’s regional capital project open at present is basically safe, but need to be wary of. For our country in the process of economic globalization, opening up the capital account is represent the general trend. Therefore, based on the above analysis, from the analysis of the factors restricting the further opening up of China, in order to lift the restriction factors as a starting point, put forward China’s capital account opening-up strategy, and put forward their views on the financial security network construction in our country, in order to actual capital project to our open propulsion be helpful.