The Internationalization Of RMB On The Impact Of China、foreign Trade

The currency internationalization of a country and its influence on the country’sforeign trade is a topic which has theoretical and practical significance of the field ofworld economy. At present, as a hot spot, the internationalization of the RMB hasattracted great attention to the circles of academic and political. In recent years, China’seconomy has maintained steady and fast growth, the international balance of paymentsis in good condition and strong international reserves constitutes the foundation ofcurrency remained strong and enjoys high international reputation, and it made rapiddevelopment of the internationalization of RMB. Foreign trade as one of the three"carriage" of promoting economic growth in China, and its average growth rate hasreach21.06%in ten yeas from2003to2012. The total trade soared from$8509.9billion in2003to$38667.6billion in2012has made important contribution to theeconomic development of our country. In this context, the topic to explore theinternationalization of RMB and foreign trade of China is very necessary.In the theory analysis part, first of all, this paper set forth the related concepts ofRMB internationalization and introduces its development status. Secondly; this papercombined with the theory of international trade knowledge, mainly analysis theinfluence of the RMB internationalization of China’s foreign trade from three angles ofqualitative：the scale of foreign trade, the structure of foreign trade and direction offoreign trade.In the empirical analysis part, firstly, this paper will regard the development ofRMB foreign circulation as the mainly indicator to measure the degree ofinternationalization of RMB. According to the modern quantity theory of money byFreedman, selected from the first quarter of1996to the fourth quarter of2012related tothe quarterly economic data, estimate the domestic demand of RMB from the firstquarter of2003to the fourth quarter of2012, and then, estimate the RMB foreigncirculation scale through indirect estimation method; secondly, according to themeasurement model of currency internationalization which built by theinternationalization of RMB issue early domestic scholars Li Yao, the developmentdegree using the RMB internationalization of the overseas circulation scope and scaleon the internationalization of RMB circulation abroad were measured, the results showsthat the RMB internationalization level increased from0.13in early2003to0.18by the end of2012, but still at the preliminary stage of development, We can be seen that theoverall level of development of the internationalization of RMB is still relatively low,but in ten years the level of the internationalization of RMB cumulative rise to38.46%,Still with a fast speed in development. Finally, based on the vector auto regressionmodel (VAR) quantitative analysis of the influence of RMB internationalization ofChina’s foreign trade scale, major in quantitative analysis of the influence of RMBinternationalization on China’s foreign trade scale. Model except the total capacity ofChinese foreign trade and RMB internationalization index these two variables, alsoselected China’s GDP, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate of RMB thesevariables to aided analysis the model.The innovation of this paper first of all lies in the all the data used are covered bythe fourth quarter of2012, can reflect the relatively new economic changes;Secondly, this paper calculates the amount of RMB circulation abroad until the fourthquarter of2012, and then estimate the measure index of RMBinternationalization development level of RMB internationalization.This paper gets the following conclusions: firstly, the development of theinternationalization of RMB is able to expand the scale of China’s foreign trade,optimize the structure of China’s foreign trade and a clear direction of China’s foreigntrade; secondly, through the cointegration test show that there is a long-term equilibriumrelationship between RMB internationalization and China’s foreign trade scale; thirdly,through the Grainger causality test show that the RMB internationalization isthe Grainger reason of China’s foreign trade scale; fourthly, though the impulseresponse function analysis, show that the RMB internationalization of China’s foreigntrade scale there is a long-term positive effects; fifthly, through variancedecomposition can see the explanation of the RMB internationalization for China’sforeign trade scale continued to increase.