Research On The Total Size Of Urban Construction Land Prediction

Urban construction land is an important material carrier of the regional social and economic development. The rapid development of the society and the economy, as well as the constantly increase of the urbanization process enhanced the requirement of the urban construction land, and decreased the area of the cultivated land, leading to an increasing contradiction between land supply and demand. Therefore, strengthening the research on forecasting of urban construction land utilization and scientific planning the construction land could effectively prevent the farmland from being occupied. Forecasting of the urban construction land use and properly use of the construction land are of great theoretical and realistic importance for the management of the construction land, the increase of efficiency of the construction land utilization and the intensive use of the urban land.In this study, the background, the purpose and the significance of the urban construction land studies were summarized, and the progress of the domestic and aboard researches was investigated. Varies factors, including society, economy, intensive utilization, environmental parameters etc., could influence the land use of the urban construction. The commonly used forecasting methods of the urban construction land were introduced and assessed, and the theoretical characters and the practical applications of different forecasting methods were compared. The use condition and the limitation of different methods were discussed, and the proper forecasting model for our study was figured out.Based on the investigation of the urban construction land, the social and economic statistical data, and the construction land data during the period of1999to2012, the urban construction land utilization characters of Nanjing were studied, and the factors influencing the land use were analyzed. Results showed that the population, fixed asset investigation, total retail sales of consumer goods, GDP of certain area, gross industrial output value of certain area, urbanization rate, highway length and policy were main factors influencing the regional construction land forecasting. According to the result, three models, including the multiple regression model, the exponential smoothing model and the combination forecasting model were conducted, and the construction land of Nanjing was forecasted. The results were verified, and accuracy of the forecasting result of the combination forecasting model overwhelmed the other two models. Therefore, the combination forecasting model was used to forecast the construction land use scale of Nanjing city in2013and2020, and the adjustment methods were proposed from different levels.