Xiushui County Construction Land Demand Forecasting

In today’s volatile economy, the supply and demand balance research of construction land isa high value research subject, it is not only has a guiding role to reasonable planning land, at thesame time also can rich land discipline construction. In order to meet the former land demand, atthe same time, aslo can avoid the scale of construction land infinite dilating, so we must have totake various technical means to forecast the construction land demand scale which is reasonablescientific. In this paper,it will select XiuShui county which jiujiang city as the research area, inthe various statistical data and the collection of data, using the way which is consist ofmicroscopic analysis and macroscopic analysis, to analysis the situation of construction land useand and forecast the planning years scale of construction land in XiuShui county.In this paper,it will select XiuShui county as the study area, through the factor analysis andcorrelation analysis, understanding the linear and nonlinear relationship between each socialeconomic factor and construction land demand in XiuShui county calendar year, thenconstructing the relevant three kinds of mathematical models,to forecast the demand scale ofconstrution land in the future from2011to2020in XiuShui,and there are three kinds of differentresults. According to the change situation of construction land in the past ten years in XiuShuicounty and the now development status and the future development tendency of social economyculture in research area, at the same time,according to the method which is weighted take weightto determine the scale of construction land of each year in prediction, Draw the best predictionscheme, it is concluded that:1. XiuShui county is in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, and in the next periodof time will remain the trend, the growth rate of construction land is faster before1996, but underthe control of state’s macro-regulation land policies and the planning revision of the1996-2010years of general land use planning in XiuShui county.according to the statistical datas show thatthe construction land increased2488.50hectares in total in the last planning implement inXiuShui.2. at the first time,this paper select some factors such as the rural per capita housing area ofurban, total wages of on-the-job worker,GDP,per capita net income of rural residents,grossindustrial output value, Population at the Year-end, A total of16economic and social primaryfactors, after data processing software to carry on the analysis processing, comprehensivecomparison get influence XiuShui county construction land demand index system,select the maininfluencing factor, constructing the mathematical model of construction to forecast land demand. 3. Comparing the prediction results in the all kinds of model with development trend in thefuture of social economy in XiuShui,and finally determined the construction of the total scale ofthe land demand from2011to2020in XiuShui county.