Research On The Macro Risk Of RMB Internationalization

With the rapid growth of China’s economy, Chinese plays an increasingly important role in the world economic system.RMB internationalization has become an inevitable trend. Since the introduction of RMB cross-border trade settlement pilot in2009, the amount of RMB cross-border use has been sharply increased.By the end of2013, the annual RMB cross-border trade settlement accumulated4.63trillion yuan,increasing by57%compared with2012,which was2.94trillion yuan.In2013, the build-up of Shanghai FTA put RMB internationalization onto a new level. However, the process of RMB internationalization still has long way to go.Meanwhile, it inevitably contains a variety of unpredictable risks. This article chooses macro risks in the process of RMB internationalization as a research perspective, it is an important perspective.It is not only a long-term consideration of China’s economic and financial development strategy, but also a prospective thinking of RMB internationalization in the background of globalization.Firstly, this article makes s a general theoretical analysis of macro risks and influence path in the process of currency internationalization. On this basis,we talk about the macro risks of RMB internationalization. Subsequently, from the perspective of the perspective capital account liberalization, we use the method of empirical analysis and theoretical analysis to analyze the macroeconomic and financial stability impact of RMB internationalization in a framework which contains capital account openness, RMB cross-border trade settlement, exchange rates and economic growth.The results suggest that RMB cross-border trade settlement and capital account liberalization is highly correlated; RMB cross-border trade settlement will intensify the fluctuations of RMB exchange rate and enhance the relevance between capital account liberalization and exchange rate fluctuations; in the long term,capital account liberalization will have some negative effects on the macro-economic growth. This article also builds a VAR model which contains capital account openness, output, price level, exchange rates and money supply to respectively analyze the impact of RMB internationalization on monetary policy controlling price and output, the study found that RMB internationalization has certain extent inhibiting effect on the price and output effects of monetary policy.Finally, based on experience and lessons of the risk control of Dollar and Yen internationalization,combined with the macro risks of RMB internationalization, we propose a series of targeted and operational risk control measures.