A Theroetical And Empirical Study On Land Supply Policy Participation Into Macro-economy Intervenetion

Since economy transformation,it is due to the change of industry and economy structure and the disequilibrium of the aggregate supply and aggregate demand that the fluctuation of Chinese economy emerged with the high-speed growth.In order to prevent the fluctuation of macro-economy in the new economic period,Chinese government advanced the land policy was introduced into macro-economy intervention in 2004 to stabilize the macros-economy growth.So,it is from the perspective of risk control that this paper studied some fundamental issues in the macro-economy intervention of land supply policy.In the disequilibrium theoretical system,the disequilibrium of demand and supply was a normal state.An excessive demand or supply in one market could consequentially influence the equilibrium of demand and supply in another market,which brought about the disequilibrium of demand and supply of the whole market system.Survival theory argued the disequilibrium state of market system and economy system could survive within some areas,and keep the steady development of macro-economy.However,once the disequilibrium degree of market and economy system went beyond the scope of surviving areas and was allowed to continue,market and economy system would evolve into "death areas".Based on the above logic,it was necessary that the disequilibrium degree in all kinds of markets such as capital,labor force,land and consumption must keep in some areas.So,the purpose of the state intervention was to reduce the disequilibrium degree in all kinds of markets by the ways of price,quantity or the combination of price and quantity,to keep in some areas,to consequently decrease the disequilibrium degree of the effective aggregate supply and the effective aggregate demand in society,to maintain the macro-economy stable.Under the framework of disequilibrium theory and survival theory,from the perspective of risk control,this thesis builded up models from two angles of the expression and the judgement of the land market,and made theoretical and practical study on the land supply policy in whole country and regional level.The following conclusions have been found.(1)From the perspective of risk control,macro-economy intervention by land supply policy aimed at exerting skillfully the land use policy to regulate land supply quantity with taking the practical things of land market into consideration.Accordingly, the disequilibrium degree of land marked in the whole country and regional level was kept in the moderate disequilibrium areas.(2)On the assumption of the incomplete development of land market at present,the moderate disequilibrium areas of land market in China was firstly determined in the range of the high limit 0.1 and the low limit -0.1,which accorded with the objective practice.It was reasonable for the disequilibrium degree of the land market should be controlled in the range of the high limit 0.1 and the low limit -0.1(3)In the case of the whole country,the upper and lower threshold of the reasonable areas of disequilibrium land market was -0.1≤Z≤0.1.From 1987 to 2005,land supply policy was to reduce the quantity of the land supply that was theoretically calculated as 2312.402km2;Since 2003,it was wise for the government to carry into execution "shrinked" land supply policy,and disequilibrium degree of land market couldn't be kept in the areas of-0.1≤Z≤0.1.(4)According to land use efficiency,the land of the country was divided into theⅠareas,theⅡareas and theⅢareas,in which theⅠareas included Beijing,Tianjin, Shanghai,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangsu,Heilongiiang,Shandong,Jilin,Hebei, Guangxi and Liaoning;theⅡareas included Chongqing,Jiangxi,Hunan,Anhui,Hubei, Shaanxi,Hainan;theⅢareas included Yunnan,Sichuan,Shanxi,Neimenggu,Henan, Guizhou,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang and Xizang.(5)As far as regions was concerned,the upper and lower threshold of the reasonable areas of disequilibrium land market was -0.1≤Z≤0.1.From 1994 to 2005,Land supply policy was to reasonably reduce the quantity of the land supply that was theoretically caculated as 265.011km~2 in 13 provinces of theⅠareas;Moreover,theⅡand theⅢareas of the land market lied in the moderate disequilibrium areas.Nowadays,land supply policy should be paid much emphases on the 13 provinces of theⅠareas,and the land supply would moderately be shrinked in the future,which could keep the disequilibrium degree of land market in the right range of the high limit 0.1 and the low limit -0.1.