Economic Impact Evaluation Of Road Project Based On Fuzzy Reasoning

Economic evaluation of road project is an essential part in road construction. It canhelp people sum up the experience in the project and provide a basis for future roadconstruction. The traditional methods of economic evaluation of road projects onlyfocus on the project itself and ignore a number of known roads information which issubstantially associated with the unknown ones. Among the information of known roads,the information associated with the economic benefit of the unknown roads can befound. Then we can predict the economic benefit of unknown road through that of theknown roads.On the foundation of the analysis of known highroad information, this paperpresents a method of economic impact evaluation of highroad project based onTakagi-Sugeno fuzzy reasoning. First, according to the influence indicators system ofroads, the paper defines the feature vector of road which is comprised of ten indicators.Then after classifying the known roads with hierarchical cluster analysis and K-meanscluster analysis, this paper gets the better classifying result through the comparison.And the economic benefit remarks are given based on the theory of NPVR and EIRR.The weights are determined by the distances between the unknown road and the clustercenters. Simple TSK Model and Complex TSK Model are established to handle theclassifying data.In order to test the accuracy of the economic evaluation model, this paper sets apart of Sui-man Road as an example. We draw the conclusion: the error rates of SimpleTSK Model and Complex TSK Model are both little. What’s more, Complex TSKModel has a better accuracy than Simple TSK Model. Then we evaluate the economicbenefit of the project of Chang-ji Road in China-Singapore Jilin Food Garden. It willhave a good economic benefit and is worth the investment. The provided method isproved to be precise and accurate through the application examples. It has greatpractical significance in the actual road project.