Study On The Influence Of Residents’ Consumption Of Population Aging In China

The problem of population aging is a social issue of common concern in theworld today, and has been recognized as an important strategic issues of China’ssocial, economic and population development. In1982at the International Conferenceon population aging was held in Vienna, marking the population aging problem hasattracted worldwide attention. After entering the aging society in1999, the agingproblem has been the focus of our government and the academic discussion.In the context of an ageing population, this paper on the basis of theoreticalanalysis, on the aging of the population forming process analysis, and tries toobjectively recognize this process and its influence. At present, according to thesituation of our country, the juvenile population in proportion gradually reduced, theproportion of the elderly population is increasing, but the proportion of the adultpopulation remained basically unchanged, due to consumer demand and consumptionstructure of the elderly population and other age population is significantly different,therefore increasing elderly population will have a certain impact on the country’soverall level of consumption and consumption structure. This paper uses theautoregressive distributed lag model of influences on the consumption of the aging ofour population and quantitative analysis, the econometric model final modelingmethod using the "general to specific", that the aging of the population have a positiveimpact on the level of consumption of the conclusion. Secondly, after systematicanalysis on and consumption structure change on China’s aging population process,using the improved gray correlation analysis of gray correlation analysis andapplication of grey prediction method of GM(1,1) to forecast the population aging2013-2020years of. Finally, the results of empirical analysis and draw the conclusionand puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.