Analysis On Cycle Fluctuations And Correlation Degree Of Beijing’s Lectricity Consumption And Economic Growth

As an important necessity of social production inputs and daily life, the electricity is also an important foundation for economic development and social progress. The shortage of electricity will affect the normal operation of the national development, and will impact on the GDP growth ultimately. The article studies the inner relationship between Beijing’s electricity consumption and economic growth, so as to provide a basis for Beijing’s electricity policy-making.Through a comprehensive analysis of electricity consumption and economic growth’s status and industrial structure changes from1978to2012, the article studies the cycle fluctuations of electricity consumption and economic growth to reveal their inner relations, using a new method of cycle analysis-Grey dynamic model; at the same time, analyze the grey correlation of electricity consumption and economic growth using grey correlation model, which is based on the perspective of industry.Analyzing the electricity consumption cycle and economic growth cycle, we find that electricity consumption is in the leading of the economic fluctuations. Calculating and sorting the correlation, we conclude:①the impact of Beijing’s life electricity consumption to the whole society and life electricity consumption to economic growth is large comparatively;②the impact of industrial electricity consumption to the whole society is in a high degree, but the contribution to GDP is very low;③Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy are in a smaller proportion of tertiary industry, its impact to the whole society and GDP is between secondary and tertiary industries;④the impact of the wholesale、retail trade and catering industry of the tertiary industry to electricity is low, but its contribution to GDP is before the industry; the impact of transport、 warehousing、postal and telecommunications sector to GDP and electricity consumption are small. We should optimize the structure of the tertiary industry, control the second industrial development and develop first industry properly.