Empirical Study On The Relationship Between NMI、PMI And GDP

Services and manufacturing industry are two important components of thenational economy, sustainable economic growth is dependent on their coordinatedand healthy development. Non-manufacturing and manufacturing purchasingmanagers index are based on the questionnaires of the judgment of production,procurement, and related business activities. Theoretically they can respectivelyrepresent the development of services and manufacturing industry.Compared to most of the existing literature on the relationship between the PMIand economic studies, this paper discusses whether NMI is an effective indicator ofeconomic development, as well as to explore the relationship and the transmissionmechanism between NMI and PMI.This paper study the correlation between NMI, PMI and real GDP growththrough correlation measurement methods. Concluded:First, it exists significant correlation between GDP growth and NMI, and NMIleads GDP growth about three months. As the lag period of1-7, we reject that NMI isnot Granger cause of GDP, comparing with the existing literature about the influenceof PMI on GDP, the effect of NMI on real GDP growth is more lasting.Second, NMI interacts with PMI, and NMI can explain most of the changes inPMI, but PMI can’t explain the most change of NMI, indicating that China’s serviceindustry promotes the development of manufacturing industry, and the leadinginfluence of China’s manufacturing industry on the services sector is still small.Finally, we analyze the movements of NMI and its sub-indices and PMI an itssub-indices in2003,getting a detailed analysis of the main problems of China’s serviceindustry and manufacturing. we explore the development of China’s service industryand manufacturing lately, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures in thelate of2014.