The Research On Issues Of Estimates And Regulatory Of Our Country’s Hot Money

As a short-term capital, hot money flows rapidly in the world. The first show ofhot money on the worldwide stage was the " Mexican financial crisis" and " Asianfinancial crisis"; then a series of financial crises occurred in many countries in the1990s, in which hot money also played a very important role. As a special economicform, with the increase of the scale and the operation’s complexity, hot money hasbecome a force we shouldn’t underestimated. With the reinforcement of our country’seconomic strength, the expectation of the RMB appreciation, the prices of the domesticreal estate and stocks are also increasing continually, so more and more international hotmoney starts to aim at our country. It is the hot money come into our country forarbitrage by all means that brings significant impact to the development of our country’seconomy.Hot money is newborn in the last century, so both of the researchs about hot moneyin the theoretical and empirical fields are not fully mature, it can be said the hot moneyhas academia mixed reviews. As an objective economic affair, hot money has a certainrationality, because its emergence and development have historical inevitability;however, it is also quite hazardous, because its speculative nature can directly bringabout the severe economic turmoil in financial sectors.In the current transition period of China’s economic system, in the face of thecomplex external environment in international financial field, we should spare noefforts to supervise the financial sector, and how to solve the problems caused by hotmoney reasonably and effectively, has become the top priority of China’s financialregulatory work. For the harm to China’s real economy brought by hot money, we mustcarry out proactive financial control to mitigate the damage to a minimum level.Weshould also hold back blind financial liberalization.But for reasonable financialinnovation, we should encourage and support them, we should also take full advantageof the benefits brought by capital and monetary mobility.This study is targeted at a series of problems caused by the growing influx of hot money. Firstly, I combine the domestic and international studies on hot money and theclassical study theory of hot money, then I start my study from the concept andcharacteristics of hot money; Secondly, I begin to analyze and excavate the motivationand path channels of hot money inflows to pave the way back for policy proposals;again, this part is also the core and the innovation of this paper,in this part I summarizethe existing methods for estimating the scale of hot money, and I also use aneconometric statistical software on the basis of empirical analysis, create andsummarise an estimation method of my own, the reason for the actings above is that wecan reflect the changes in scale of hot money inflowing into our country morespecifically by using the exact data, and also can provide a basis for governance of ourcountry’s hot money; Finally, according to the case in recent years, the scale of China’shot money flows, as well as the positive and the negative impact of hot money on China’s economic development,I propose policy recommendations from the appropriateregulatory power to cut the flow of hot money, strict control of the flow of hot moneychannels,and the enhance of the defense field of speculation angles.