Research On Dynamic Rvaluation Of Urban Residence Development Potential In China

After decades of development, China’s real estate industry is becoming more andmore important in the national economy and plays a important role in thedevelopment of the national economy. Since the1998reform of the housing system,residential real estate development as an important part of real estate development, isalso an important element of urban development and management. As China’snational urbanization continues to move forward and the rapid economic development,residential development will stay steady growth for some time to come. Regionaldifferences in factor endowments and national policies result in unbalanceddevelopment of regional economy in China, which affects the equilibrium of theresidential real estate industry development. It is difficult to quantify the developmentlevel of each citis ’ real estate market, which cause problems to government policyand companies ’ investment decision. The evaluation of urban residence developmentpotential, become a problem must be faced, which is the background of this research.Basing on the theory of real estate management、urban competitiveness andurban economic development, considering the factors that influence the urbanresidential development potential, following the principles of establish index system,this paper firstly determines primary election tri-level index system. Then I analysisthe relevance of indicators to make secondary screening, getting the final indexsystem.In the process of building a evaluation system, firstly it need to get a staticevaluation method, on the basis of the content and features of this evaluation, incombination with the advantages and disadvantages of multi-index evaluations, Idetermin the principal component analysis (PCA) as the assessment methods to scoreand empowerment the indicators of each year, then using the PCA to get static scoreof each year. The next step, this paper constructs a dynamic evaluation matrix, anduse PCA again to empowerment the weight of years,getting final scores of each city.Finaliy, cluster analysis method is used to cluster final scores, and using clusteringand principal component analysis results to make specific analysis.Applying the construction of evaluation system to practice, sample data comefrom the35large and medium-sized cities in the year from2005to2011, through theevaluate results, it proves the rationality of evaluation system. By the theoretical andempirical analysis, the paper get conclusions, suggestions and prospects are given atlast.