Judged Model And Simulation Research Of Emergency Information Dissemination Based On Bayesian Networks

Emergency events bring damages to our daily life and society. Emergency events will not only put a threat to financial security, but also affect the Internet. Such as the airplane crash of Malaysia Airline Company and the terrorists attack in Kunming in 2014. The same characteristics of them are that they all attract a lot of attention from public and have a very huge influence both in reality and on the internet. This proves that researches on Emergency Events are crucial. As we know, emergency management department plays a very important role in dealing with emergency events. With the rapid development of the internet technology, the restriction of government is more important and necessary, at the same time this also brings hardships to the management. The emergency events information has a life cycle just as a special form of information. The judgment of information life stage can be the basis of government management and make the dynamic state of emergency events clear, thus shorten the time cost between the spread of information and government management.This thesis is based on the life cycle of emergency events. Firstly, we divide the cycle into birth stage, growing stage and dying stage. Then the mainly features of each stage are analyzed. From the research, it is easy to find out that the government’s management in emergency events is quite important. The scheme of government management in the spread of emergency events information is presented obviously by the transmitting model which is constructed under the free and restricted circumstances. Then, the elements of constructing the model of EEV (Emergency events) based on Bayesian Network theory are analyzed parallel and serially. It can be separated into external and internal reasons. It also can be divided into Data abstraction, factor constitution and result proving. The first grade elements included are, influence, and people’s tendency, govern of government and forcing power of internet. Through the modif.cation of genetic algorithms, the BASGA (Bayesian Network Learning Algorithm) is formed. The structure is confirmed by the simulation models of judgment of life stage and tendency of life circle using MATLAB. The whole model is generated by Netica. At last, the simulation is proceeded using several sets of random data; the results prove that this model is effective and trustworthy.Research shows that in the whole procedure of emergency events, it is very important that government gets to know the status and manages the information of EEV as government is the pronouncer and leader of EEV. This thesis is relied on the judgment of EEV, an effective solution on the management of EEV is proposed. It can help government to select the useful information, thus make the right choice. It can also offer a help to the managers of internet to select and control the information, so proper decisions on the supervision of EEV based on the life stage of information can be made.