Correlation Analysis Of The Impact Factors Of Maize Price Based On Web Information

Maize plays an essential role in grain market both in China and in the world due to its diversified usage; its price fluctuation has drawn wide attention of all social communities. In the development of maize industry, there is data record for the maize every day, through which we can effectively understand the maize transaction information. But at the moment, the maize processing enterprises and governments do not make effective development use of this data resource, which makes the data and information losses corresponding values. This paper extracts maize price and related data in web, creates maize price database, analyzes affecting factors of maize price through association rules and forecasts the fluctuation situation of maize price, which will provide more comprehensive and accurate information about maize to peasants, enterprises and governments.This paper makes following work about the affecting factors of maize price:First, explore the relationship between every factor and maize price with full consideration of supply, demand, policy and other factors and finalize supply factors(total output, stocks, import volume), demand factor(income of urban residents, feed grain and industria l grain etc.) and policy factor(national reserve policy) as key words of Web information collection.Second, realize real-time internet data receiving and storage related to maize and other information on the Web. Determine the initial web page and crawle r field through easy language Web Crawler. Collect internet real-time data and transfer it to Access data base to provide data support in forecasting maize prices changes. Real-time data acquisition can make use of the internet real-time data more efficiently and improve the intelligence in decision making of agriculture, which can provide scientific basis for development and decision-making of agriculture.Third, this paper gets the association rules of maize price fluctuation with the method of association rules. Based on the related data from 1998 to 2015, research results show that the association rule of cost factor is that there is a positive correlation between the using amount of direct material per acre and maize price. Under the background of agricu ltural mechanization, there is a negative correlation between the family working days and maize price. The association rule of demand factor is that the increase of feed grain and industrial grain will decrease existing storage. The association rule of policy factor is that national policies not only affect the maize price but also affect the storage, annual output, import volume(import quota) and industrial use of grain.Lastly, this paper establishes the relationship between maize price and maize total o utput, import volume, consumption volume, urban residents’ income, live hog price and international maize price by adopting multivariate non-linear regression method, the goodness of fit is 0.997. Meanwhile, it sets up nonlinear relations with each factor respectively. The agricultural producers can make correct production and sales strategies based on this.The correlation analysis of Web information collecting system and affecting factors has not been widely used in the research of maize price fluctuation, it is hoped that this research will promote the theoretical research on maize price affecting factors, meanwhile, provide new ideas and methods for the research of other crops, then make more accurate agriculture production decision and market forecast.