Research And Application On Prediction Schedule Model Of Water Supply Safe System In Mountain Scenic Spot

With the vigorous development of China’s tourism industry, water consumption has increased year by year because of the increasing number of visitors. However, due to the limited reservoir storage capacity in mountain scenic spot and insufficient rainfall during the dry season, there exists hysteresis nature through artificial water diversion. Hence, Scarcity of water resources has become a major factor restricting the development of scenic spots. The problems of uneven distribution of water resources, inefficient water supply scheduling are urgent to be solved, The characteristics of Huangshan scenic spot, complicated topography, great elevation differences, long water supply pipe network, high water diversion costs make finite water resources carrying a variety of applications. Water has been used for ecological protection, fire-fighting, daily life and tourists. The water that is used for various applications has different priorities, which has increased the difficulty of the water supply scheduling. Nowadays, the countermeasure called experience scheduling scheme is adopted on the basis of the reservoir level below a certain value in the Huangshan scenic spot. However, this diversion scheme possesses its hysteresis nature, which turns water scheduling into lacking rationality. Currently, the improvement of water supply scheduling and water supply pipe network almost aims at city water supply in domestic and international countries, and there is little research on water scheduling in mountain scenic spot like Huangshan. Therefore, the intelligent level of water scheduling in Huangshan scenic spot has much room for improvement.Based on the features and combined with historical data of water supply scheduling in Huangshan, this paper has summarized the common water demand forecasting methods. It has made a deep research on the weighted moving average prediction method, introduced water demand factors in the algorithm and applied a median mixing moving average method to solve the hysteretic problem. On account of water demand forecasting information, the improved PSO algorithm has been employed to optimize the water. scheduling process under the constraints of the water supply reliability. The purpose of this paper is to eliminate hysteretic nature of the traditional scheduling in maximum. Forecasting model has been applied to predict future water and the amount of reservoirs remaining. Therefore, the anticipation scheduling can be able to deal with some unexpected situations, while by optimizing the algorithm to realize energy-saving scheduling in order to increase economic effectiveness and enhance the intelligence level of the water supply schedule.This dissertation taking the Huangshan scenic spot as the study object, the intelligent optimal scheduling system of water supply has been created through water demand forecasting and scheduling optimization and has realized better effects.