Research On Inventory Control And Demand Forecast Of Power Supplies Based On Demand Features Classification

As the levels of production and information in China gradually improve, the demand of power supplies for power related industries are growing up. Electricity industry is facing changing customer demand, long purchasing cycle, deletion and distortion of historical consumption data, the difficulty of demand forecasting and inventory control, and many other problems, and all of them give demand management and inventory management of power supplies a great challenge, so demand forecasting and inventory control of power supplies make more and more importance in enterprises. Intermittent demand power supplies is very important to enterprises, and good demand forecasting and inventory control of that can not only guarantee the normal operation of production, but also can greatly reduce inventory costs and improve the competitiveness of enterprises. Taking the background of certain warehouse’s actual management demand of Shanghai Electric Company, according to the characteristics of power supplies, on the basis of detailed analysis of demand characteristics and scientific classification of power supplies, this thesis focuses on the problems of inventory control and demand forecasting of intermittent power supplies. The following investigations are conducted in this thesis:(1) On the background of certain warehouse’s actual situation of shanghai electric company, the general status of the entire warehouse management was understood though the deep field research to the enterprise, then the inventory management demand of power supplies that enterprise needed were analyzed, and the importance and feasibility of this paper was determined. Based on historical consumption data, the demand characteristics of power supplies was extracted and analyzed, and power supplies were classified scientifically and comprehensive on the basis of that, then the overall inventory control strategy of power supplies was designed, and for the different types of power supplies, dynamic inventory control models were built, and the above work had provided the effective basis for inventory management.(2) On the basis of thorough understanding of intermittent demand characteristics of power supplies, the entire predicting work was divided into two parts, which was the forecasting of demand time and demand amount. BP neural network model was proposed to predict demand time of intermittent demand of power supplies, simultaneously the advantages and disadvantages were analyzed through experiment, and on the basis of it BP neural network optimized by genetic algorithms was proposed. GM (1,1) gray model was proposed to predict demand amount because of the characteristics of less historical demand consumption data of intermittent demand of power supplies, that was valid and feasible illustrated by prediction experiment, finally the two aspects together described the situation of future forecasting, reduced the difficulty of forecasting, and provided an effective method for the forecasting of intermittent demand of power supplies.(3) From the perspective of business demand, the overall function of the software modules of inventory control and demand forecasting of power supplies and the function of each sub-module were designed detailed, then the basic data management module, demand characteristics management module, demand forecasting module, dynamic inventory control and so on were implemented by programming, and the always work had reached the purpose of controlling the inventory of power supplies effectively.