The Research Of Change Decision Model In Automotive Electrical Research Project Based On Bayes And Decision Tree Method

With the arrival of the mobile internet, new technologies spring up at anunparalleled pace in all industries. In accordance with the statistics,70%ofinnovation in automobile industry comes from automotive electronictechnology. We are definitely convinced that automotive electronic willsoon become the competition target for the relative companies from thesimilar cases of PC and cells-phone industry.As the subsidiary of Shanghai Motor, YFVE has already taken the largestniche domestic and partial international automobile interior decoration andlow-end automotive electronic products. In spite of the current status, YFVEis still a new comer in innovation high-end market. The company had madegreat efforts in this market but failed at trials finally in these two years.During this process, however, the weakness of the company has exposed suchas the poor management in the decision making in change management forthis kind of automotive project with innovation. As for the innovationhigh-end technology, indefinite is one of its characteristics and there are fewcases to be examples. Hence the traditional project management method,especially for the decision making method of project change cannot meet the demand for R&D program.In order to tackle this issue, it is of great help for us to find a scientificand systemic method to do the analysis and make the decisions for thechange of indefinite technology.The framework of the thesis is as following. The paper starts with theintroduction of auto electronic history and current status. After that, I will listthe problems YFVE has countered in decisions making process during thechange management. The third chapter focuses on how to set up the decisionmodule. Bayes decision method will be applied into the prior probabilitiesanalysis to reach the posterior probabilities. Then Decision Tree method willbe used to get an overall analysis on technology solutions and find the bestway which will get the best payoff. The final parts will take YFVE’s cases into research to depict the effect of new module and offer proves.