Secondary Sources Of Demographic Dividend And Bonus Effect

Since China’s reform and opening up, with the development of the birth control policy and the liberalization of rural-urban migration policy, the first demographic dividend measured by dependency ratio of population keep growing, promoting the rapid growth of economy of china. But since around 2011, the first demographic dividend are fading quietly, labor population proportion began to decline,aging problem keep rising, many scholars believe that the "lewis turning point" has come. In the context of this reality, there are more and more research on the second demographic dividend, major concerns include three aspects:the policy of population, human capital and population psychology. This article summarized the different dispersants arguments, put forward the definition of second demographic dividend systematiclly, and summarized the sources of the second demographic dividend,including population psychology factor(anticipation about aging problem)、human capital exploration、population policy(urbanization construction and social security). And then, this paper expound the mechanism the second demographic dividend promoting economic growth. Based on the current social and economic situation, using co-integration test and granger causality test, from the perspective of empirical validation of pure theoretical perspectives of the sources of the second demographic dividend whether have indeed constitutes the effective second demographic dividend. According to the empirical result shows that only the human capital exploration and urbanization construction is the specific sources of the second demographic dividend. And population psychology factor and the social security policy is not established for obvious sources of second demographic dividend.Through the combination of the theoretical analysis and empirical test, to determine the sources of second demographic dividend base on current social and economic environment. Establish panel regression model using the indeed sources of second demographic dividend to empirical test its effect on economic growth, which verify the second demographic dividend effect size. Come to the conclusion that the sources of second demographic dividend: human capital exploration and urbanization construction are positive roles in promoting economy growth, thus its’ demographic dividend is obvious.Finally, according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical test, put forward the effective measures and policy Suggestions to further mining second demographic dividend as following: Increasing the investment in education, strengthening the development of human capital; Promoting the reformation of the household registration system and the construction of the new type of urbanization; To deepen and improve the system of social security; Reasonably developing the capital of elderly people.