National Bilateral Relations From A Perspective Of Statistics

The economic globalization has got deepen in recent years, which made the relations among countries get closer and closer. One country could adjust its internal and external policies in time in the rapidly changing world to realize the stable development of itself, only if it is clear about its position in the international community and its international relationships. This article bases its research object on bilateral relations of the country and studies the bilateral relations between China and the United States, Britain, France, Australia, India, Indonesia and Russia from1950to2013by correlation analysis and time series analysis. Eviews is used to conduct data analysis. It interprets the changes and the development of bilateral relations from the perspective of the statistics.First, this article explores the influence factor of the third country in bilateral relationships by analyzing the similarity in the bilateral relationships between China and other countries with the theory of correlation analysis. It is one of the innovations of this article. The results show that America is the major factor which affects our country’s external relations, which conforms to the fact of history. It indicates the effectiveness of correlations analysis.Second, the ARIMA(4,1,4) model in the article "The application of time series analysis in forecasting international relationships----take China and France as an example" does not show a goodness of fit, and in other studies, the classical ARIMA model is the only way to analyze and forecast the bilateral relationships. In this article, the ARIMA(4,1,4) model is amended, and meanwhile, the traditional time series methods of certainty factor decomposition and residual auto-regression which combine the factor decomposition and auto regression model are generalized. It is the second innovation of this article. These two methods not only precise the goodness of fit but also make an easy and reasonable explanation to the study. By forecasting the series with the new model, we conclude that the relationship between China and Australia is rising steadily in2014, and will still be in a good relation with a high level by the end of2014.Finally, we find that the development in trading tie and bilateral relationships between China and Australia are not synchronous compared by time series graph. The factor of America and the difference of history and culture between China and Australia are the main reason for why their bilateral relationship falls behind trading tie between these two countries.