The Pattern Of Chinese Population Distribution Estimation In The Future

Chinese is about one fifth of the world’s population, and the scale of population migration also are very large.So population migration in some extent can determine the pattern of Chinese population distribution. The direction of population migration and the scale of population migration affect the region economy development, regional gaps, resident welfare. But the research that the population migration impact on the region economy development, regional gaps are not thorough enough. Some experts suggest that migration widens regional gaps, and some think that migration shortens regional gaps.There is no same conclusion. Therefore, on the base of the SAM table equilibrium method, this article builds multi-regional CGE models to research the trendsof the future population migration, to analyze that the population migration impact on the region economy development, regional gaps, resident welfare.Although there are many factors influence population migration, this article selects the two most important ones:wage gap and climate change. Reduce the gap between the east and the west is one of the important tasks of the Chinese government work. So 30 provinces are divided into two regions.the east and the west, based on HU Line. Because of the gap of regional wage, the western people migrate to the east. Paper set eight scenarios of different scales of population migration and one scenario involving remittance to analyze that the population migration impact on the region economy development, regional gaps, resident welfare. The research result shows: population migration adds to the nationwide GDP, increase resident welfare; the eastern GDP growth is bigger than the westen one;with the growth of population migration, the gaps of per capita GDP, per capita income and per capita consumption between east and west experience a process that narrowed at first and then enlarged; population migration has no effect on industrial structure; the growth of population migration boost people’s income and consumption grow in east and reduce those in west; remittance is not without influence upon economic development,but it improves the life of people.Besides, as the issue of climate change becomes more and more serious, climate change can affect agriculture produce, at the same time agriculture can affect the pattern of Chinese population distribution,so the effection of climate change on population migration can not be ignored. This article introduces agricultural production potential in order to estimate the pattern of Chinese population distribution. The article divide 30 provinces into eight areas,there are four regions have people immigration.Then this paper builds dynamic eigth-regional CGE models to analyze that the population migration impact on the region economy development, regional gaps, resident welfare. The research result shows:the national economy slows down; people immigration increase GDP, people emigration will bring the opposite result; The larger scale of population migration, the greater effection of economic growth; population immigration improves resident welfare,on the other side, population emigration have an adverse effect; population migration widen internal gaps of region,close outside gaps of region, close overall gap;however there is little effect on the industrial structure, regional industrial reconstruction have different change. the population migration impact on the region economy development,andit will be more and more powerless along with time passing.