The Foreign Policy Strategy And Shift In Military-Security Cooperation Of Uzbekistan From The U.S., Towards Russia Around 2005/06

This research is an analysis of foreign policy strategies and the shift in militarysecurity cooperation of Uzbekistan from the USA towards Russia from 2005 to 2006. In this thesis, how foreign policy decisions in Uzbekistan directly depend on President Karimov will be discussed. The leader of the country, due to security and in order to save authority, adjusted and changed its strategic alignments accordingly.This thesis uses a process tracing for qualitative analysis. It is identified as the systematic study of diagnostic evidence and the analysis of research question and main argument for determine the process of selecting a strategic partner in the international arena for Uzbekistan. Considering this fact, we are requested to answer the following question: Why did Uzbekistan undergo a strategic shift away from military-security cooperation with the U.S. towards Russia around 2005/06, only shortly after it had shifted its primary military-security cooperation from Russia to the U.S.?The thesis contents are divided into five chapters. The first chapter considers general introduction, which will be described the state formation process and relation with partners of Uzbekistan after the collapse of Soviet Union. Vulnerability of the external borders and weak state acute social problems were the conditions that needed to be addressed. Uzbekistan has been exposed to new threats and challenges, in particular religious extremism and international terrorist organizations. Regarding the relationship of Uzbekistan and the United States, Uzbek leadership was thrown from side to side in search of better conditions for itself.Foreign policy strategy of Uzbekistan in the region is determined by several contradictory factors. On the one hand, Tashkent consistently distanced itself from Moscow’s political and military cooperation. On the other hand, the threat of Islamic extremism makes Tashkent to seek new forms of cooperation with Russia. Uzbekistan has never refused to cooperate with Russia in the context of regional security, including equipping its armed forces military equipment and weapons of Russian production. Uzbekistan agreed to buy from Russia modern weapons and the training of Uzbek officers in Russia. Uzbekistan and Russia needed each other’s support. But the Russian aid to Uzbekistan was needed more than the support Moscow needed from Tashkent. The new stage of warming Uzbek- Russian relations is happening but it’s important to notice that the interests of Moscow is more concerned with geopolitics and regional security issues, meanwhile to Tashkent allied relations with Russia are matters of survival for his regime and an independent state. Uzbekistan and Russia continue fruitful cooperation in all vital issues for both countries. That trend in bilateral relations that exist between the countries remains the same fact of the geostrategic and geopolitical position of Uzbekistan and Russia in the international and regional arena, which is always going to push the two countries to cooperate.Furthermore in this chapter the theoretical framework of this research can be observed. Omnibalancing theory by Steven David is a theory where the proper units of analysis are authoritarian state leaders that face both external, but also and more importantly, internal threats, coups or revolutions. Lieder choose their alliances to maximize their probability of survival.The second chapter will consider the role of Uzbekistan in Central Asia. In considering this question it is necessary to take into account the basic component parts of the country including geographical location, as well as Uzbek’s political position in the region. Only Uzbekistan has borders with all countries in Central Asia, making it one of the major countries in the region and this is perhaps one major reason for relations with neighboring countries. But sometimes it causes conflicts at the border areas. This gives Uzbekistan the need to build up its military potential. It may be noted that this was the one of the main reasons for rapprochement relations with the U.S. because the leader of Uzbekistan did not see a chance to get a leading role in the region when it cooperated with Russia. Also it should be noted that Uzbekistan has quite an active foreign policy in the region.This chapter also examines the military potential of the country after independence. It will be clearly describe the main problems of the country. It will explain all the difficulties of military development in the post-Soviet period. It is worth noting the comparing the combat capability and readiness of the Uzbek troops with the armies of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan- one of the first republics among CIS countries understands that it will acquire its statehood only when it has its own strong army. Due to having so many neighboring countries, Uzbekistan allocates a lot of money for the maintenance of her army.Third chapter will focus mainly on Uzbekistan-USA military-security cooperation. Uzbekistan’s policy makers understood that among Central Asian countries the role of Uzbekistan needs to be more dominant. But this didn’t become a reality under the pressure from Russia. Since independence, Uzbekistan’s strategy was clearly proAmerican, but not because of political or ideological sympathies, it was for strategic reasons. Tashkent sees itself as a large, historically established regional player and is seeking recognition of this status through a privileged partnership with Washington. That way Uzbekistan found a new supporter in the U.S. In 2001, Uzbekistan established a U.S. military airbase in Karshi-Khanabad. Tashkent has allowed the United States to open a military base on its territory in exchange for a promise to ensure the safety of Uzbekistan. From a geostrategic perspective, Tashkent does not have large military potential. He certainly has a great mobilized population in comparing with other Central Asian countries. The compound of the former Turkestan Military District, stationed in the territory of Uzbekistan, was eventually destroyed. But idea for creating an efficient army is still difficult due to lack of senior officers and generals who are experienced in command and policy creation. With the help of NATO and the U.S., Uzbekistan dreamed of creating new combat-ready parts.A fourth chapter explains improvement of Uzbekistan-Russian relations. Uzbekistan relations with Russia were very active and strategic. Russian-Uzbekistan relations developed under the decisive influence of foreign political and military factors. The first factor was represented by the so-called "external threat" related to the regional political arena in Central Asia the Afghan radical movement "Taliban". In the region there is a threat posed by the IMU which was actively sponsored by the Taliban. As it was the sole force against the regime in Uzbekistan and wants to organize an Islamic State. The impact of the second factor was manifested in the failure of Uzbekistan to ensure their safety. Two listed circumstances have determined the desire of Tashkent to the priority development of relations with Moscow as the key to preserving the territorial integrity of Uzbekistan and the inviolability of its borders.After Andijan events Uzbekistan-U.S., relation changed in bad way. USA blamed president Karimov for actions against protestors who were against a dictatorship regime in country. Karimov was scared about losing the power. Uzbekistan decide kick-out USA military airbase from the territory of the country after five years since established U.S., military airbase. The United States and other Western States, as well as a number of international organizations blaming the actions of the Uzbek authorities to suppress terrorist insurgency as "indiscriminate force" that resulted in numerous victims among the civilian population. In cooperation with the U.S., Karimov have problems and benefits. On the one hand, Uzbekistan is aware that, despite the fact that America ensures its external security and provides economic support, on the other hand Karimov worry about his regime because U.S. brings democratization and human rights. The fear of losing the power became a reason to shift back towards Russia.Islam Karimov is unpredictable to all the world’s leading players. A retrospective review of the development of Uzbekistan-Russian relations in the years of independence, allow us to conclude the existence of contradictory trends: growth and a cooling of relations, Karimov controversial policy pendulum and multi-vector foreign policy of Tashkent. But pragmatism and common interests of Uzbekistan and Russia formed a certain logical relation: the ongoing development of cooperation on key regional and international issues and the desire for a constructive dialogue. These tendencies intensified bilateral cooperation. In general, most importantly, in recent years Uzbekistan and Russia have come a long way from the policy of mutual distrust to strategic partnership, which was made possible mainly thanks to the diplomatic efforts of the Presidents V.V. Putin and I.A. Karimov.In the fifth chapter comes the conclusion that a foreign policy decision is strictly dependent on the leadership of the country. Fear of loss of power plays a major role in the choice of an allied country. The Uzbek authorities are not ready to accept democracy and freedom of speech. Karimov is willing to do everything to save power and be very strict in cases of unrest in the country that he showed after the disorders in Andijan. The fear of losing power within in Uzbekistan has played the primary role in this state selection of their primary strategic partner. For this reason, Uzbekistan shifted from a state being closer to Russia’s arch rival, the U.S., to a status-quo orientation by adopting pro-Russian foreign policy.