| As the aging problem is becoming more serious and the family pension ability is weaken than ever, city’s demand for institutional pension will increase increasingly in the future. Current institution endowment facilities in Shanghai have many problems such as insufficient total amount and the configuration is not reasonable. Based on the reference basis of theory and domestic and overseas case studies, combined with field investigation, Leslie matrix model, to predict the demand for pension agencies in Shanghai’s ageing peak. The thesis mainly covers the works as follows:Firstly, this paper summarizes the basic theory of the elderly group and endowment facilities, which work as theoretical foundation of the thesis.Secondly, according to the ageing characteristics and the level of economic development in Shanghai, Choose Japan and Hong Kong as case study and research their endowment institutions development experience. Summarizes the experiences and the revelation, which can provide a reference for the endowment agencies development in Shanghai.Thirdly, Comprehensive analysis of aging characteristics, challenges for the family pension, endowment facilities configuration, service object and nursing staff. Find out the problems existing in the endowment institutions in Shanghai. In order to better predict the demand of endowment facilities and put forward the countermeasures.Fourthly, based on Leslie matrix model and the data of Shanghai’s permanent resident population, Consideration the factors of fertility and mortality, to predict male and female population in every district. Obtain every year’s elderly population in forecast period. With this foundation can forecast the demand of pension facilities.Finally, to predict endowment facilities demand in ageing peak in Shanghai. Based on elderly population, the level of economic development and out investigation to predict the demands of pension beds, construction areas of different Pension agencies and nursing staffs in every district. This study can help the districts and counties to solve the pension problem better. This paper also put out several relevant countermeasures and Suggestions. |
