The Simulation Research Of The Need For The Home Care Service

An aging society make the old man, family, and country faces many challenges,on the one hand, physiological function of the elderly receded in the final stages of life;on the other hand,because of the core family, family endowment function weaken, countries need to assume corresponding responsibility. So, the state will face immense challenges in the aspects of caring for the elderly personal service and financial support.The aged-care at home is one of the important social endowment service way. On the one hand, it is so fit China’s traditional ethics that That old man can be in the love of his family; On the other hand,it can integrate resources and alleviate the pressure of the family. Based on the above background, The author forecasts demand for home endowment service project requirements, service staff and capital requirements in the future.In this paper, research methods include: First of all, using literature research gather the information and relevant scientific research. Secondly, methods the 1200 old man selected through a investigatio method were treated by an structured interview in Shanghai changning district. The author obtain their information of basic conditions, the present living conditions, pension and home endowment service needs. Again, using SPSS19.0 statistical software for statistical analysis of samples, including descriptive statistics, interactive analysis, single factor statistics, etc. Finally,the author forecasted demand for home endowment service project requirements, service staff and capital requirements in the future using VENSIM system dynamics softwareThis paper mainly has the following research results: Home-based care services became the preferred service and adheres to the inclination for the eldly. Proportion was 59.4%. Secondly,pension services was multivariate,but assisted living、medical care and mental care were basic need. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the personal factors, economic factors and family factors will have deep effect on the elderly will, pension service demand and the influence of the economic capacity. Fourth, this paper studies the key for the simulation of demand. Based on the demand factor, economic factor, elderly population factors, the author builded a System dynamics model. Three stages of development in the future included rapid growth stage(2014-2025), the stable growth phase(2026-2042), decline stage slowly(after 2043). In terms of services project, the project with the biggest demand are do housework、chat、health care and seeing a doctor。Home endowment service funding gap will continue to expand for nearly 30 years in the future。To keep the house supply and demand balance,the fiscal spending input is in the 2% 3% range and Home endowment service financial investment is 70%- 90%In order to realize the sustainable development of home-based care for the aged, the country is preparing in advance。First of all, the government should do its job well actively, for example, laws and regulations, system, funds safeguard; Community completes the hardware and software construction; Service team ensure the stability and specialization.