| Base rate neglect refers to a judgment and decision-making bias phenomenon, which is resulted by neglecting or paying insufficient attention on base rate information and only focusing on case information in the related situations. Since the problem situation of "engineer and lawyer" was proposed by Kahneman and Tversky firstly, the follow-up researchers found that this phenomenon was widespread in the daily decisions, such as human-health risk perception, consumer online shopping and organizational behavior aspects. Theoretical explanation of this phenomenon is mainly concentrated in the dual-process theory, but researchers have different views on the type of processing and the type of conflict between them occurring in the situation processing. Therefore, this study adopts a perspective of conflict detection to analyze the types of processing and conflict existing in the ignoring problem situation processing, which may further reveal the root cause of this phenomenon.Pre-study mainly explored the time required to first reaction and verified that whether this phenomenon was universal. The results showed that the first reaction time required was consistent with existing researches previously, and the phenomenon was universal and cross-cultural consistency.Study one used a situational experimental method to explore the type of conflict detection when the base rate was extreme value (eg.997:3). With a random between-subjects design of two factors (situational type:consistency vs. inconsistency) x 2 (types of reactions:first vs. final), the results showed that the final reaction time was greater than the first reaction, indicating that there were two different processes existing in the situation processing. And whether it was the first reaction or final reaction, the decision confidence under inconsistent situation was lower than that under consistent situation, indicating that there were two different types of processes and conflict detection. So, experiment results confirmed the different processes and conflict detection types in the base-rate neglect scenarios processing, but the experiment did not verify the assumption that the accuracy of probability judgment would be improved under final reaction condition.Basing on study one, study two want to verify whether there was no conflict detection existing when the base rate was moderate(eg.700:300). Still using a between-subjects random design of two factors (situation types:consistency vs. inconsistency) x 2 (reaction types:first vs. final), the results showed that there were two different conflict detection as the same of that when the base rate was extreme. But what was different was that there was no different confidence among situational types at the final reaction condition, but that did not mean the absence of conflict detection, because the reaction time among different situational types were different. Besides, the results also did not verify the effect of reaction type on the probability judgment value, but the base-rate value did have an impact on the probability judgment value.Study three explored whether social dimension of psychological distance (self vs. others) may alert effect on decision confidences when they tend to the same information to make decisions. With a random between-subjects design of one single factor (psychological distance:self vs. others), results found that when selecting option supported by case information, decision-making confidence under distant condition was weaker than that under close condition. This result verified the impact of psychological distance on decision-making confidence, but the results did not find the effect of psychological distance on decision-making confidence when selecting option supported by base rate information. And that the proportion of selecting option supported by base rate information was larger than that of selecting option supported by case information under distant psychology was also not been verified. So the hypothesis was partly verified by the experimental results. |
PDF Full Text Request