| Objective:With the reform and opening-up policy, the rapid economic development and the influx of western ideology make Chinese people increasingly open to the concept of sex. In China, female sex workers (FSWs) were known as "sex workers" and "prostitute" and were also the core population of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) spread. They are believed to be an important bridge crowd of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) transmission and infection to the general population. At present, the methods of AIDS high-risk population estimation can be divided into two categories:direct method and indirect method at home and abroad. Direct methods included Census Methods, Enumeration Methods, and Population-based Survey Method. Indirect method includes Multiplier Methods, Capture-Mark-Recapture Method (CMR), and Nomination Methods and so on. The CMR method of log-linear model based on the existing mutual overlap of the incomplete database can estimate the number of the population, which will use existing data and greatly reduce the chances of direct contact in the survey and improve the representativeness of the samples. So, we use it to estimate the overall number of female sex workers (FSWs).At the same time, we based on the classical two sources of CMR method and statistical formula of the domestic and foreign researches and firstly deduced stratified five-sources of CMR method under random sampling in order to estimate the overall cardinality and statistical variance formula. On the other hand, our team firstly applies this method in Guangxi province to estimate the overall size of female sex workers (FSWs) in 2015 to formulate AIDS prevention and control measures and provide scientific reference for health departments.Methods:According to the classical two-sources of CMR method statistical formula and sampling theory, combined with logarithmic linear model, statistical variance formula, Bartlett criterion, orthogonal projection method, interval estimation theory of mathematical statistics knowledge, we deduced statistical formulae of cardinality estimation and its variance using five-sources CMR under stratified random sampling. And we apply this method in estimating the overall cardinality in Guangxi province in 2015.Results:1. Based on two-sources CMR and its statistical formula under simple random sampling on cardinality estimation. We firstly had also deduced the statistical formulae of five-sources CMR and its variance statistical formula under stratified random sampling.2. We applied five-sources of CMR method under stratified random sampling to asking female sex workers whether to take AIDS prevention measures and prostitution near the related hotel or the street in three months recently in Guangxi Province,2015. The recovery of the questionnaire was 13384, eligible questionnaires was about 13040.The cardinality estimated of female sex workers (FSWs)for about three months was 91299, and its asymptotic standard error was 5964,95%CI was (79610,102988).3. We applied five-sources of CMR method under stratified random sampling to asking female sex workers whether to take AIDS prevention measures and prostitution near the related hotel or the street in three months recently in Guangxi Province,2015. The recovery of the questionnaire was 13384, eligible questionnaires was about 13040.The cardinality estimated of female sex workers (FSWs)for about three months was 91546, and its asymptotic standard error was 6423,95%CI was (78957,104135).4. Between the period of three months and six months, the results of 100 simulated samples using Monte Carlo on five sources CMR were:the former of 96 analog overall bases were included in 95%CI of overall estimated cardinalities, and the latter of 98 analog overall bases were included in 95%CI of overall estimated cardinalities.Conclusions:1. This study not only deduces five-sources of CMR method statistical formula, under stratified random sampling and successfully applied this method to estimate the overall cardinalities of female sex workers in Guangxi Province and achieved better effect in practical application.2. In this paper, five-sources of CMR method under stratified random sampling by acquired interval three months and half a year estimated the cardinality of female sex workers (FSWs) respectively 91299 and 91546inGuangxi Province,2015.Female sex workers (FSWs) accounted for about 0.13% of the total population and we also fill the gaps of the estimated FSWs in Guangxi province, which will help the health administrative departments make decisions and provide references.3.The results of Monte Carlo simulation on MSM between the period of three months and six months stated that almost all the simulated overall cardinalities of 100 samples were included in the 95%CI of overall cardinalities. So, the survey method and its formulae in our research are of great reliability and validity. |
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