Temporal And Spatial Analysis Of Neural Tube Defects And Detection Of Environmental Factors In Shanxi Province

In this paper, we were aimed to explore the geographical risk factors which affecting the occurrence of NTDs(neural tube defects) in Shanxi Province. So we selected Heshun County and Yuanping County in Shanxi Province, which have high incidence of NTDs, were selected as the study area. Before analysis, a hierarchical Bayesian model was used to smooth the space distributions of NTDs incidence. Two paired sample T test was used to study the changes in the risk of NTDs from time dimension. Spatial scan statistics was combined with GIS software to find out the changes in the risk of NTDs from spatial dimension. And geographical detectors were used to identify the risk factors of geographical environmental for NTDs inside the coal production and transportation area, and study the relationship between the incidence of NTDs and geographical background. Finally, we selected a typical regional in Shanxi Province, and sampling environmental chemistry in Yuanping County, and analyzed different chemical elements in different types of samples to explore the environmental chemistry factors that may affect the occurrence of NTDs. In order to provide a scientific basis for evaluating interventions in birth defects, and provide technical support for future measures in Shanxi Province.Whether in Heshun County or Yuanping County, the incidence of NTDs was substantial significant(P<0.05) reduced after intervention. The results of spatial scan analysis showed, significant spatial difference is existed in both counties, NTDs clusters were detected in the period of before or after interventions, and the cluster area was inside the coal mining pollution area. Geographical detectors reveal the elevation, in coal mining pollution area, the fault topography, soil type and other terrain slope have larger influence on the incidence of NTDs in the risk areas in our study regions. The interaction influence on both deformity factor is greater. The road and the river have small affecting on NTDs. During environmental chemical factors analysis in Yuanping County, we found the spatial distribution of neural Defects and these elements vary within a small range is also quite obvious. Correlation analysis results showed that the areas with higher Cd content in soil, the incidence of NTDs increases, showing a significant positive correlation.