| ObjectiveTo study the prevalence of dementia in China from 1990-2014. To estimate the number of people aged 60 years and over from 2020 to 2050. To estimate the number of people aged 60 years and over with dementia from 2010 to 2050. To estimate the yearly direct economic burden brought by dementia from 2010 to 2050.MethodsProbabilities of dementia incidence were calculated from Meta-analysis.Epidemiological investigations on dementia in China published in journals covering the period from 1990 to 2014 were identified by using CBMDISK, Chongqing VIP database,CNKI, Pub Med database and so on. The random effects model of the Meta-Analysis was employed according to Meta Analyst Beta 3.13 for homogeneity. Using the sixth census data and the age shift algorithm to estimate the number of people over 60 years old,comparing with the World Population Prospects(2012 version), then get the number of people with dementia. Taking the data from the established research, to estimate the yearly direct economic burden of dementia in China from 2010 to 2050.Results1. The prevalence of dementia in people over 60 years in China from 1990 to 2014 was 3.4%. The dementia prevalence of women was higher than men, the prevalence of AD was higher than the prevalence of VD, the prevalence in the north of China was higher than the south, the city prevalence was higher than rural area. There was a negative correlation between the prevalence of dementia and the education level. The prevalence of dementia of 60-64 years old in men and women were 1% and 0.8%; the prevalence of dementia of 65-69 years old in men and women were 1.6% and 1.3%; the prevalence of dementia of 70-74 years old in men and women were 2.2% and 12.6%;the prevalence of dementia of 75-79 years old in men and women were 4.6% and 5.3%; the prevalence of dementia of 80-84 years old in men and women were 7.1% and 11.2%; the prevalence of dementia of over 85 years old in men and women were 17.8% and 19.6%.2. We estimated that there were 260.98 million people aged 60 year-old and over in2020; 371.00 million people aged 60 year-old and over in 2030; 421.64 million people aged 60 year-old and over in 2040; 447.03 million people aged 60 year-old and over in2050. There were 205.46 million men and 241.58 million women, 114.58 million between 60 and 64 years,85.34 million were between 65 and 69 years, 73.62 million were between 70 and 74 years, 74.05 million were between 75 and 79 years, 57.47 million were between 80 and 84 years, and 41.96 million were 85 years or older.3. We estimated that in 2010, there were 5.80 million people aged 60 year-old and over with dementia; in 2020, there were 8.98 million; in 2030 there were 12.97 million;in 2040, there were 17.57 million; in 2050, there were 21.09 million. The results were closed to the data estimated based on World Population Prospects(2012 version).4. The yearly direct economic burden of senile dementia every year in 2010、2020、2030、2040、2050 were 204972 million yuan, 317353 million yuan, 458360 million yuan, 620924 million yuan, 745321 million yuan.Conclusions1. The prevalence of dementia in people over 60 years in China from 1990 to 2014 was 3.4%. The dementia prevalence of women was higher than men, the prevalence of AD was higher than the prevalence of VD, the prevalence in the north of China was higher than the south, and the city prevalence was higher than rural area. There was a negative correlation between the prevalence of dementia and the education level.2. The number of people over 60 years in China in 2050 will be 2.52 times larger than that in 2010. The number will increase dramatically.3. The number of people with dementia in China will increase dramatically in the next 40 years unless preventive measures are developed.4. The direct economic burden will be very heavy in 2050, we need find the preventive measures for dementia. |
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