A Study On Contribution Rate Of Climate And Production Factors Impact On Single Cropping Rice And Winter Wheat Unit Area Yield In Our Country

Correctly analyze the influence of different inputs on food production has a great significance in ensuring food safety system in our country. Increasing food production is a major task of our country for a long time, in recent years, our agricultural production has a gradually ascending trend under the input factors, but the estimate of contribution rate of different input factors on food production is kind of fuzzy. On the premise of accurate evaluation of agricultural climate resources, this paper would combine the other than climate factors impact on agricultural production, and separate the different factors’contribution to agricultural production.This study based on the climate change characteristics nearly 30 years in our country, using the simulation and analysis technical route, calculated the contribution rate of climate and non-climate factors impact on single cropping rice and winter wheat unit yield, analyzed the agricultural production situation in recent 30 years, calculated the contribution rate of different input production factors impact on our whole agricultural production, and then got the contribution rate of different input factors impact on single cropping rice and winter wheat production. Firstly, climatological data of 1981-2010 was used to study the distribution of light, temperature, precipitation, and there climate tendency and change tendency from 1981 to 2010, by using the ArcGIS, climate tendency equation and MK test method; Secondly, searched in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River rice plant area and winter wheat plant area, analyzed the temperature factor’s impact on single cropping rice yield, and calculated the climatic potential productivity, analyzed the climate and non-climate factors’contribution rate on two major crops combined with the Social statistics. Thirdly, on the basis of using the grey GM (1,1) model to simulate agricultural production data of our country, built production functions in the Eviews8.0 software platform, calculated the contribution rate to food production of each input factor, and separated the climate factor and technology’s contribution rate to agricultural production; Fourthly, used the result that calculated in last step, and calculated contribution rate of different input factors to the two major crops.Study results showed that:(1) In recent 30 years in our country, temperature had increased obviously, thermal resource showed an increasing tendency; Precipitation showed an increasing tendency on the whole, while increases and decreases of each station had little difference; Solar resource showed a decreasing tendency on the whole, and radiation quantity had maldistribution; (2) Under the climate change in recent 30 years in our country, single cropping rice production increased in east and northeast, and reduced in the middle and west region, under the non-climate factors, it’s production all increased, and the increase in the middle and west region was more than in the east and northeast region; winter wheat production increased in most regions except the northwest and some areas in Xinjiang under climate factor, with the influence of non-climate factors, its production increased in most regions except some areas in the southwest, northern China and the east region; (3) In recent 30 years in our country, the food unit yield of the middle, east, northeast region was more than of the central plains and west region, and showed increased interannual change tendency; financial input in developed areas was more than in the backward area; other input factors in Henan, Shandong and other places were more than in Xinjiang, Qinghai and other places; Financial input reduced the unit yield in most regions, other input factors increased the unit yield in most regions; (4) Under the grain area, chemical fertilizers, and other factors, the two major crops’production increased, while reduced under the financial input factor, it’s similar to the distribution of total agricultural production.In this study innovations were as follows:(1) Climate and non-climate factors contribution rate to the two major crops production were separated by using climate potential productivity and yield data; (2) Combined GM (1,1) model with C-D production function, and separated different input factors’contribution rate to the food unit yield in our country; (3) Applied the result of (2) to the result of (1), and got the input factors’contribution rate of each crop respectively.Limited by statistical data shortage in this study, and complexity of meteorological condition, analysis on actual agricultural situation in some regions need further study.