| Climate change affected agricultural production seriously and has become the focus of attention in recent year.In order to scientifically evaluate the impact of future climate change on the annual production of wheat and maize,scenario data of 3 different concentration paths(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)based on the BCC-CSM1-1 climate system model in the Huang Huai Hai area for 2020-2099 years were selected in this study,and the trend of climate change in the growth period of wheat and Maize in the next 80 years were analyzed.Using DSSAT crop growth model,the production potential and yield trend of winter wheat and summer maize growth period were simulated and analyzed.The effects of climate change on yield of winter wheat and summer maize and the adaptability to production were studied.Therefore,formulating measures to adapt to climate change,and provide important theoretical basis for coping with climate change,rationally developing and utilizing climate resources,adjusting planting layout,exploring yield potential of wheat and maize and increasing yield.The main results were as follows:1.The change trend of climatic factors during the growing period of wheat and cornThe highest temperature and minimum temperature in the wheat and maize growth period in 1961-2005 years showed an increasing trend,while the precipitation showed a downward trend.Under the 3 different RCP scenarios,the highest temperature and minimum temperature in the wheat and corn season were all increasing,and the temperature was maximum in the RCP8.5 scene;In the RCP8.5 scene,the precipitation showed an increasing trend in the wheat and maize season,the increasing rate was 1.66 and 1.11 mm/lOa respectively.The accumulated temperature at>0℃and the>10℃ in the wheat season showed an increasing trend,and the extent of most increasing temperature in the RCP8.5 situation;The increase rate of the solar radiation in wheat and maize season reached the maximum;The proportion of drought and flood in the growing season of wheat and maize is relatively small,and the trend of drought and flood is consistent with the trend of precipitation.2.Spatio-temporal changes of wheat and corn production potential during the growth periodThe production potential of light and temprature of wheat and maize seasons fluctuated greatly under the 3 RCPs scenarios.The production potential of the wheat and maize seasons increased significantly under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,the increasing rate of the production potential of light and temprature of the wheat and maize seasons was the highest,the increasing rate was 530.53 and 1971.45(kg/ha)/10a respectively;The difference of the production potential of light and temperature in the distribution of the east and the west was obvious,and the change rate increases gradually from east to west,and the variation amplitude of the production potential of light and temperature in the maize growth period is greater than that of the wheat season.The climatic production potential of the wheat season in the 3 different RCP scenarios was increased.While the climate production potential of the maize season under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios was increased and it under the RCP4.5 scenarios was decreased,and the distribution of the east and the west was obvious;Under the RCP8.5 scenario,the climatic potential productivity of wheat season was the largest,which was 239.72(kg/ha)/10a.The climatic potential productivity of wheat and maize season was both significantly positively correlated with solar radiation and accumulated temperature.3.Temporal and spatial variation of yield loss rate during growth period of wheat and MaizeThe yield potential loss rate caused by temperature limitation in wheat and maize seasons showed a significant downward trend under the RCP8.5 scenarios,the average loss rate was 75%and 26%,respectively.The yield potential loss rate caused by precipitation limitation in wheat season and maize season showed a significant increase trend,with an average loss rate of-3%and 57%respectively.The spatial distribution of the yield potential loss rate caused by temperature limitation was high on the Northwest and low on the Southeast in wheat season,which was high on the Northeast and low on the Southwest in maize season.The spatial distribution of the potential loss rate of the climatic potential compared with the light and temperature potential caused by the precipitation deficit in the wheat season was obviously high on the Southwest and low on the Northeast in wheat season,while the maize season was high in the west and low in the east.4.The change of simulated yield of wheat and cornUnder the 3 RCP scenarios,the interannual difference between the yield of wheat and maize was obvious.With the increase of CO2 concentration,the flowering and mature period of winter wheat and summer maize were earlier,the growth period was shortened,and the number of days shortened was RCP4.5>RCP8.5.There was a certain difference in the yield potential of each site expressed in the 3 RCP scenarios;the coefficient of variation of interdecadal summer maize under different RCP scenarios was less than 10%,which indicated that the summer maize in each decadal summer maize kept stable yield,and the average yield difference between each decadal was smaller.The variation coefficient of intergenerational variation was the smallest and stable productivity was the highest in each year under the RCP4.5 scenario. |
