The Research On Yangling Peach Florescence Prediction Model

Peach bloom forecast is the basis of production activities, just like using flower spray insecticide, artificial pollination and flower thinning. As to the area that flowering often suffer from late frost, knowing the flowering date in advance and frost forecast, can take relevant and effective measures to avoid frost and ensure the production and quality. The area where have the Peach Blossom Festival, florescence forecast is important to garden management,tourism resources development and entire travel plan arrangement.After carrying on the significance examination to the model independent variable and rejecting the model unnecessary variables, the best mathematical model of Yang Ling peach florescence prediction model was then built. The following conclusions and recommendations may also be drawn:1. Temperature is an important factor affecting the flowering of peach trees, activity accumulated temperature>effective accumulated temperature> ten days data of temperature.Correlation analysis showed that prediction of blooming period coefficient significantly or very significantly correlated with activity accumulated temperature(≥5℃).2. The forecast model of the peach blossom in Yangling area is:y=30.469-0.098x10Y is flowering phase, x10 is activity accumulated temperature(≥5℃)Goodness of fit index in this model is fairly good.From the result of the actual service of flowering forecast, this model has a certain accuracy and feasibility, but there are also the instability of the prediction error(or accuracy).If a week before flowering had a sharp fluctuations in temperature, dramatic warming can be3-5 days in advance, or push back 3-5 days. On the premise of temperature meet, when precipitation(air relative humidity), the more the peach beginning flowering to delay; On the other hand, the peach flowering to a little earlier. So in practical applications, the model should not only be paid attention to the temperature, accumulated temperature and temperature before flower, also needed to pay attention to factors such as precipitation,sunlight, wind, and combined with other related plant flowering comprehensive forecast, to improve the accuracy of flowering prediction.