The Monitoring And Prediction Of Wheat Head Blight In Guanzhong

Fusarium head blight(FHB) is a common destructive disease of wheat in humid and semi-humid growing areas of the world. FHB, especially in the epidemic year, can cause serious economic losses. Besides producing loss of yield and shriveled grain, the fungus can synthesize important mycotoxins(deoxynivalenol(DON) and nivalenol(NIV)) affecting both man and animals by inhibiting eukaryotic cells to synthesize proteins.Effective use of automatic and accurate disease monitoring and early warning is an important component of modern agriculture. This study sought to evaluate disease monitoring and warning system for FHB risk prediction. Six monitor sites in Guanzhong region were used in this study to evaluate the accuracy of system. At least seven fields were assessed FHB incidence in each site during the flowering period. The main results are as follows:1. Severe epidemics of FHB are associated with the beginning population of this fungus,rainfall at the end of April, relative humidity from during late April to early May in Guanzhong. There was a positive correlation between these factors and FHB incidence(P =0.25).2. The predictive FHB incidence during the flowering period in Xingping, Meixian,Zhouzhi, Yangling, Weinan and Huaxian are 15.2%, 2.1%, 6.8%, 2.0%, 50.1% and 15.2%,respectively; the actual FHB incidence are 27.2%, 1.4%, 7.3%, 1.0%, 41.0% and 12.6%,respectively. The predictive FHB incidence is similar to actual FHB incidence and its accuracy for the 6 monitor points in Guanzhong region in equals to 94.4%. The application of FHB prediction instrument has realized the long distance transport of predictive FHB incidence. The system can accurately predict FHB, which can assist grower, agrotechnicians and governments make decisions for controlling FHB, in the mean while, lay the foundation of development plant disease prediction.