| In this paper, we choose the desert steppe as the sample plot in Siziwang Banner of Wulanchabu, Inner Mongolia. The meteorological data and survey data is based on climate change data which was monitored for a long time, we select the frequency of extreme weather occurs, and build simulation climate change scenarios for the next10years in Siziwang Banner. Through survey of more than100interviews with the herders, we build four climate change simulated scenarios for Siziwang Banner:A, No adaptive measure and no climate change; B, climate change but no adaptive measure; C, climate change and adaptive measures; D, adaptive measures without climate change.Under climate change scenarios, the meat production of breeding new varieties is significantly increased, but in the poor year, the warmshed can’t maintain high production without the enough forage. Under the measures of banned grazing and reducing livestock, the unit of livestock meat production is increased. Without the adaptive measures, the net income of family ranch is reduced with the herd size shrinks, but increased with the rainfall increase. According to the pasture size from large to small, compared to no climate change scenarios, the net income of climate change scenarios respectively increased0.92%,0.02%and0.03%.With no adaptive measure, the response of methane emission and climate change is not obvious. It’s decreased with the rainfall decrease in the different years, the methane emissions of the same scale pasture associated with annual rainfall, the emission of different scale pasture with the direct proportion to the size of the pasture. The precipitation directly effects forage biomass, livestock feed and methane emissions. The methane emissions of the different scale pasture has no relationship with the climate change under the different adaptive measures. The methane emissions decreased with the reduction of the number of livestock, and increased with the precipitation increases. |
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