Forecasting Study On Demand Of Shanghai Shared Ownership Housing Based On BP Neural Network

With the introduction of shared owne rship housing to our country in 2007,it has been developed rapidly. From the recent policy trends, it can be found that the state also intends to vigorously prom ote the shared ownership housing. As a ne w thing, how to determine the supply of the shared ownership housing is an important issue in every city. The reasonable supply should m ake the m atch between supply and dem and of the shared ownership housing, so as to avoid the shortage of supply and surplus of construction. To solve this proble m, it can determ ine the total dem and of shared ownership housing as a prerequisite. As th e early city in shared ownership housing construction, Shanghai’s running system is more mature with a good reference value in the country. Taking Shanghai city as an example, the study was on the demand and its forecast of the shared ownership housing.Firstly, analyzing the characteristics a nd advantages of the shared ownership housing and our country’s pilot case, this paper introduced operation mode, supply and demand situation of the shared ow nership housing in Shanghai. Secondly, it would analyze the forming logic of shared ownership housing demand, divide factors affecting demand into 8 ca tegories where to select 19 influencing factors. It can select 9 m ain factors affecting demand by using operating data of shared ownership housing in Shanghai and grey correlation analysis, and predict the 9 main factors by using the grey prediction GM(1,1) m odel. Thirdly, BP neural network prediction m odel was constructed by taking these 9 main factors as the inpu t variables and the shared ownership housing sales area as the output variable. The shared ownership housing sales areas were predicted by bring the 9 i nput variables into the BP neural network model. Finally, this paper quantitatively anal yzed the changes income standard in the application of the shared ownership housi ng and the influence of the price on the demand. It can be found that increasing re venue standards will increase the dem and of the shared ownership housing and raising prices will reduce the total demand, which is the basis to propose the strategy for controlling the demand.This paper studied the demand of the shared ownership housing, broke through the limitation of the previous research on shar ed ownership housing, and introduced the method of quantitative research. Through the demand forecast and the demand quantity control strategy, the government can adjust the supply and demand relations from both demand and supply at the sam e time, realize the supply and dem and matching of the shared ownership housing, and i mprove the efficiency of resources use. The m ethod of forecasting the demand and the method of making the demand quantity control strategy can be extended, and it is expected to be us ed for reference for other cities to make the construction plan of shared ownership housing.