Construction And Application Of VaR Risk Model For Construction Project Reserve

In the modern economic environment, the engineering project cost risk management is an important link in to successful projects, the cost is the primary indicators of the project cost risk. Reasonable project basic reserve funds, to ensure that project smooth deal with all kinds of uncertainty risk in the process of progress,to ensure the construction of the project. Domestic at present widely used to formulate the rate determined in the form of basic reserve funds, regardless of construction enterprise management level and the nature of the project. However, in recent years,various project overruns phenomenon is increasingly frequent, basic reserve funds rate method to calculate the construction enterprise is reasonable? Whether there is any other method can depending on the nature of the construction enterprise and project, the calculation of reasonable engineering reserve funds, make the construction enterprise to engineering project risk, ensure project safety and orderly progress.This article through to the project cost theory and the theory of risk management,analyzes the existing in the project cost risk factors, established the normal distribution assumption of risk cost; After studying the risk management that is commonly used in VaR risk measurement methods and the conditions of various application of VaR model, based on the mining VaR risk model in the application of project cost risk management conditions: according to the historical data of the project,the construction enterprise and similar to set up the model of the sample database;Corresponding VaR model of the three elements, respectively, set up a construction enterprise confidence level, observation period and prediction period three sets of parameters of the project; Would cost risk factor mapping project properties for the relevant variables; Reserve funds of the project VaR model is put forward the technical route; On the basis of normal distribution assumption, applicable to the primary reserve funds of the project is constructed VaR risk model.Combined with practical engineering case, will use the basic risk reserve funds VaR model predicted results with the actual data, confirmed the model predicted results. On this basis, this paper set up the sample test of three groups of different contrast experiment, the research shows that the project reserve funds VaR model given plot and curve showed a good interactive relationship, to verify the effectiveness of model in measuring the project cost risk management.