Study On Forecasting Model Of Construction Land Demand In Ganzhou City Based On GEP

Land is a necessary resource of human’s survival and development, and the construction land isthe most closely relationship with humans. With the progress of human civilization and the rapiddevelopment of social economy, its demand also increases constantly. However, due to itsrelatively poor reversibility, unreasonable use will be very difficult to convert to other land. So,in order to meet the needs of social and economic development and avoid irrational expansion ofthe scale of construction land, we must carry out scientific and reasonable forecasting andplanning. But because the commonly used prediction model which forecasts the quantitydemanded of construction land at present has some flaws and shortcomings, for this kind ofsituation, this paper carries out the research of the prediction of the construction land’s demand inGanzhou by using gene expression programming.This paper introduces the current domestic and overseas research progress in the aspect of thedemand of construction land prediction. Meanwhile, the paper expounds the current forecastingmethods and the present research on gene expression programming application. Taking thedemand of GANZHOU’s construction land as the research object, the paper analyzes the drivingfactors that impact construction land qualitatively, and using IBM SPSS Statistics19to analyzetheir correlation quantitatively, it establishes forecasting index system for Ganzhou.Thencombined with the analysis results of Ganzhou’s influence factors, based on the fundamentalprinciples of GEP, writes the algorithm by using Visual c++6.0to build and implement the pre-GEP model that is suitable for the demand of construction land forecast. Finally, the paper usesthe established GEP model to forecast the demand of construction land in Ganzhou, andcompares with the traditional linear regression method and gray theory model prediction method.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the three methods were0.1466,0.5789,1.1369,and GEP model is more accurate than the other two models. That use of GEP can to forecast thedemand of construction land, to construction land demand prediction provides a new method.