| Auto insurance industry is expanding rapidly but profit drops. In 2013, the rate of premium is 11.20% and the compensation is 31.73%. Although in 2014 the industry profit is expected two hundred million, but this mainly rely on the improvement of personal insurance premium income. Auto insurance the rate of claim amount growth is still higher than the overall industry, reached 40%, also far more than its own brings growth. Because the insurance companies seek maximum benefits or raise premiums, they did not fully consider the interests of policy holders, they choose to reduce the auto insurance business scale, resulting in short supply. From the perspective of industrial economic development, this paper mainly aim at the phenomenon of the auto insurance, comparing the domestic and foreign auto industry, researching on the situation in domestic, finding the key of the problem. Then modeling the game analysis, from the static and dynamic, finding the final equilibrium situation is to seek the balance of insurer and insured. In the quantitative analysis, the paper validations the BMS promotes the industry to achieve stable equilibrium state, and finding the reasonable premium rate. The conclusion of this study improves and develops the industry cycle theory.Based on the above research thought the paper is divided into seven chapters, respectively is the introduction, literature review, commercial auto insurance industry overview, the game on insurance subjects, the game before and after introduction, practical application the BMS game model, conclusion and policy suggestion.The first chapter is the introduction, pointed out a lot of the insurance company in order to change the scale expansion and profit compression situation, they proposed to purchase insurance to certain conditions, but this method cannot play a fundamental role.The second chapter is the literature review, summaring three aspects of the vehicle, the research situation of the insured fraud, insurance premium rate marketization and the rewards and punishment system. Through the analysis finding that there are many research papers study on the current situation and the solutions, But less using the play game on BMS changes the interests of the whole industry. Therefore, through the establishment of game model,the paper proves the existence of the meaning of BMS system.The third chapter is the analysis of the auto insurance industry, summarizing the development process of insurance industry in our country, introducding the present situation of insurance industry development present situation, carrying on the analysis in view of the problems appeared in the development of the situation, contrasting the developed countries in the insurance industry. Finally, putting forward the experience: auto insurance development trend is rate liberalization, the insurance company need to make different rates on consider of its own management system.The fourth chapter is the analysis of the main game of insurance market, according to industry the three main game player(the insurer, the insured, the intermediary), grasping the key, finding out the key to solve the bottleneck of the development of the local industry, finding out the conflicts of interests of both sides of the most critical: the insurer, the insured.The fifth chapter constructs the game model before and after introduction of BMS, focusing on the analysis of the game model of the insurer and the insured, comparing the development of the whole industry system the BMS used before and after, Through the static game model the paper analyzes the BMS system which helps to reduce the occurrence of the insurance accident. Then, dynamic game model proves that rational people will choose to buy insurance. Finally, this paper establishes the quantitative model to solve the optimal, the value of premium rates, using historical data.The sixth chapter is to verify the theoretical model with the actual. Through the model, summed up the general law of the development of the industry, the overall industry development following the periodic law, and each cycle dividing into four stages of development(development initial stage, rapid development stage, development stage, gentle stable equilibrium stage). What is more, the cycle of compensation lags behind the premium. Combining with the specific data of China Insurance market, the paper finds the equilibrium rate.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and suggestion on the research results of this paper summarizes. Policy advice:(1) to strengthen the information integration, establishmenting the information sharing platform.(2)to emphasize the system construction, premium rate market.(3) the government reasonable regulation.(4) promoting BMS, suit one’s measures to local conditions.(5) improving supporting measures, increasing the yield of funds.The report from the point to the surface, analyzing the auto insurance industry status, exploring the key problems, then from the surface to the point, implementing the basic point to solve the problem. At last, looking for the reasonable insurance premium and premium rate. This report highlights and innovation point is:(1) highlighting the game theory used in static and dynamic combination of practical problems in the economics, the analysis of ideas have spread. In addition to the car insurance market existing game players, there are many drawbacks of asymmetric information in the industry, for example, depositors and bank’s game, The model can solve the problem of extending the ideas of optimal deposit rate etc.(2) Starting from the behavior of insurance perspective, the paper suggests to promotion of the use of BMS, and verifies the rationality of BMS combinationing of quantitative and qualitative analysis, making the theory has the certain practical value analysis.(3) Based on the business cycle theory logical curve and the Gong Baizi curve, combining with the actual, dividing each cycle into four stages of development(development initial stage, rapid development stage, development stage, gentle stable equilibrium stage). |
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