A Study On The Causal Conduction Mechanism Of The Industrial Structure In Germany And Europe And The Economic Structure Change In The Core Area Of ​​EU

One of the most important questions which has been widely discussed about in the economic study is that what kind of effect may the economic interaction between countries have on the economic development of every countries, and of which what kind of causality it is? More specifically, the most important aspect of the international interaction is the international trade, and especially the development of the intra-industry trade is most attractive during the last decades. One of the most important topics of the economic development between countries is the industrial structural convergence and divergence of the economy, i.e. the economic structure is converging between countreis or the difference is getting bigger?This paper analyses the trends of the structural convergence or divergence of seventeen manufacturing industries in fourteen European countries, and the inra-industry trade of these industries between Germany and the rest of these countries both from1991to2007, and also analyses the causality and causal paths between the two ones.First, this paper analyses the employment and output data of the seventeen manufacturing industries in the fourteen European countreis and distinguishes the trends of convergence or divergence of each industry by applying the a-convergence test and β-convergence test of the economic structural convergence study. Then, this paper measures the level of the intra-industry trade of thses industries between Germany and Europe through G-L Index, which has been widely used in the literature of intra-industry trade. Finally, this paper constructs a model of Directed Acyclic Graph to analyse the causality and causal paths between the Germany-Europe intra-industry trade and the structural convergence or divergence of the European economy.This paper is constructed as the following. Chapter1introduces the background of the study including the historic development of the Germany-Europe intra-industry trade, and the process of the structural change of the European economy. Chapter2reviews and concludes the theoretic and empirical literature on intra-industry trade and the economic structural convergence or divergence. Chapter3introduces the researching ways of this paper, including the G-L Index which measures the level of intra-industry trade,σ-convergence test and β-convergence test of the economic structural convergence study, and the method of the construction of DAG model and PC-algorithm. Chapter4introduces the data sources of the study and analyses the empirical results and their economic implication. Chapter5gives the conclusion and discusses the relevant implication.