Research On The Change Of Chinese Textile 's Position In Global Value Chain

With the development of Science and Information Technology in1950s, the trade and communication costs declined rapidly. They made it possible to achieve the mobility of human resources, capital, technology and other essential factors all over the world. Thus, a new concept born:Global Value Chain. Different countries have participated in global value chains successfully with their own comparative advantage, which promote the emergence of new changes in international production and trade patterns.In response to this trend, Chinese textile products have been involved in the textile global value chain. And Chinese textile production has made rapid development at the same time. The total exports value of our textile increased from8.583billion US dollars in1992to95.45billion US dollars in2012. During this period of time, our textile products not only made outstanding contributions to China’s economic and social development, but also provides more domestic jobs. As a traditional manufacturing industry, textile industry has directly employed more than20million employees. We hope to get more added value and broad prospects for development by being involved in the textile global value chain. However, during our Ministry of Education issue’s survey, we found that in recent years our textile manufacturers significantly affected by rising labor costs and the downturn global economy which makes them hard to improve their position in global value chain. In this circumstance, we should pay more attention on position change of Chinese textile products in the global value chain, such as what is it going to be, what the challenges are we facing with and how to solve these problems.In order to solve the above problems, we started with combing global value chain theory, smiling theory and some other references related to the position study of global value chain. On this basis, we chose ESI as the indicator to measure the position change of Chinese textile products in the global value chain. Secondly, we not only discussed the four important development and three transfer stages of the world textile industry, but also introduced three important development periods of Chinese textile industry. Thirdly, based on the SITC Rev.3data from UNCOMTRADE database, we analyzed and forecasted the position change of Chinese textile products in the global value chain. In terms of forecast, we made ARMA econometrics model to forecast the position change of Chinese textile products in the global value chain. Based on the above analysis, we come to the conclusion that Chinese textile products’position in global value chain has been enhanced but we still cannot enter the upstream position of the global value chain. Finally, we provide some suggestions based on the analysis of the challenges that Chinese textile products are facing now.