A Study On The Impact Of Carbon Tariff On Sino - US Trade

Recently, with the development of global economy, the global warming has exerted broad influence on the global living and development. To control and eliminate carbon emissions is becoming one of the hot issues. It will largely influence the trade between China and United States if the United States imposes the carbon tariff on the goods imported from China under the background of low-carbon economy.This paper tries to make research on the effects of the carbon tariff and the trade between China and the United States in the following five aspects. Firstly, we briefly introduce the definition of "carbon tariff", and then probe into the feasibility of carbon tariff under the framework of WTO. Next, we analyzes the economic effect of carbon tariff in theory; Thirdly, we study the positive and negative impact of carbon tariffs on every aspect of the society in a comprehensive way; Then, we use the input-output method to calculate the embodied carbon in the goods exported from China to the United States. On the basis of the results we estimate the tariff from various industries in different carbon tariff rates. Following, we predict the influence of carbon tariff on trade volume between China and the United States in the next5years, industries12as an example. Lastly, on the basis of the theoretical and empirical analysis we have discussed, countermeasures and policy suggestions dealing with the carbon tariff are put forward.Through a detailed analysis of "most-favored-nation treatment clause""national treatment" and "exception" of GATT, because of uncertainty of implementing regulations, in terms of the relative concepts, we cannot say the carbon tariffs of the United States goes against the basic rules of WTO. With the global environmental problems becoming more and more serious, the standpoint about WTO on the environment and trade has undergone a subtle change that carbon tariff is being accepted by the age, which is inevitable. In the short term, the carbon tariffs hinders Sino-Us trade and the terms of trade deteriorates, but if the government and enterprises take active measures to deal with it, the carbon tariffs expedites trade and the terms of trade improves. Carbon tariffs are expected to impose different influences on trade volume, export structure, competitiveness, employment, technological progress of enterprise and economic structure optimization in different stages; Empirical analysis show that the goods exported from China to the United States concentrate on the chemistry, the metal products, the mechanical equipment and transportation equipment industries, which embodies high carbon emissions.If the United States imposes the carbon tariff on these goods, it will generate great tax and sharply reduce the trade amount in the future five years between Sino-Us trade. In order to deal with the negative impact of carbon tariffs, increase the efficiency of traditional energy and develop in a sustainable way, we should make specific endeavor in the following three aspects:national policy in the macro level, industries in the medium level and enterprise in the micro-level.