Power System Operation Risk Assessment Considering Wind-Solar Generation Correlation Based Upon Copula Theory

Large scale access of wind energy and solar energy brings great challenges to power system operation and dispatch. In the practical system, the similarity of the regional climate makes the wind power and solar power outputs often have a certain correlation. How to effectively describe this correlation for the dispatching and operation worker of power system to accurately evaluate the risk faced by the current power system, has very important significance.This paper summarizes the research status at home and abroad. Firstly introduced common method to describe wind-solar generation under the independent variable form On this basis, introducing Copula function describes the correlation between wind power and solar power outputs and gives method to model wind-solar output of Copula correlation from three different angles. Example analysis verifies practical examples. We apply this model to power system operation risk assessment then, we use monte carlo simulation and scenarios simulation to get the typical scene. Method based on scenario analysis to evaluate the power system operation risk in of wind power and solar power generation. Besides, the framework and process of power system operation risk assessment considering wind-solar generation correlation are constructed. In the risk assessment of the power system, this paper puts forward three indicators of the overall risk assessment of power system which are voltage, power over-limit and loss of load to construct the index system of power system operation risk. We use IEEE24-bus system to verify the effectiveness of our method. Compared the wind power and solar power outputs under the independent variable form, the result of considering wind-solar generation correlation based upon copula theory is closer to reality. Therefore, this method provide a effective analytical tool to power system dispatching and operation personnel.