Operational Risk Assessment Of Power System With Wind Farm

With the increasing people’s attentions to environmental issues, the proportion and installed capacity of wind power in Grid has gradually increased. Due to the volatility and intermittent of wind power, the power supply side connected to the grid becomes fully uncontrollable in the generation and transmission system with large numbers of wind power, so the operation risk of a modern power system is deeply increasing. Therefore, the study of risk assessment considering wind power is of great significance.Firstly, the impact of real-time operating conditions on each component failure rate and outage rate in power system is analyzed, and real-time outage rate model of conventional generators, wind turbines and lines is established. Considering factors of voltage, conventional generator model is put forward. Weather factors is introduced to establish the wind turbine outage model, which sufficiently takes into account of the impact of external factors-weather and internal factors-voltage on the component outage. In terms of the transmission line, this paper brings forward a real time transmission line outage model based on effects of the apparent power and aging factors. And a multi-state model of wind power is proposed with the consideration of forecast uncertainty and wind turbine outage situation. Secondly, the definition of risk indicators of power system operation reliability with wind power is put forward, and the approach to solve utility functions of risk indicators are given out, and the method and process for computing the proposed risk indicators by non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is illustrated. Finally, the feasibility and rationality of the proposed models and methods is verified by a case of RTS-79 test system.