Research On Passenger Flow Forecasting Of Urban Rail Transit Line For Operation Planning

Under the new situation of urbanization, motorization rapid development, the opening of the rail transport infrastructure can be improved to ease ground traffic pressure, improve passenger travel conditions to enhance the satisfaction of the masses, so that the people "travel more efficient, convenient and comfortable. " With the advent of rail transit construction trend, many cities are building or build urban rail transport, how to predict traffic initial operation before the subway opened, formulate reasonable fare to attract initial rail transit, urban traffic management Follow one of the hot sectors. Now existing passenger operations early prediction method is still not perfect, specifically in the fare not well reflect changes in passenger traffic caused by the change, the problem will expand research paper discusses and proposes more perfect, simple Passenger Forecast for Operation Planning.In response to this research needs, this paper describes the initial operation performed in traffic forecasting for different purposes, selection and prediction methods focus with other periods or other stage; then analyzes the formation mechanism of urban rail transit, passenger flow forecast by existing methods, under the guidance of the passenger fare explore variation of looking for ways to make research and its integration into passenger flow forecasting process approach and initial operation passenger fares combined under the four-stage method is proposed thesis research framework. Choose from as well as various types of urban transportation mode of transportation Characteristics of view, the factors affecting the rail mode selection and data collection methods used to analyze, select the appropriate selection factors for rail transit, passenger selection methods of investigation, looking for different ticket Select the passenger price under the law, the establishment of a joint road traffic assignment model under the net, and in 2014, Shijiazhuang Household travel information willingness biography, illustrate the method used in this paper, the development of the final fare and traffic forecast for the initial operation to provide ideas and methods.