The Research Of Regional Road Network Travel Time Reliability Model And The Simulation Evaluation Method In Emergency

When major disasters and emergencies occur, the operation condition of the road network is one of the lifelines to save the economic property and victims. Recently, traffic scholars pay more attention on the ability ofroad transportation network against to emergencies, especially road network reliability. Deeper researches of road network reliability are conducive to analyzing weather the road network can support the effect to road network of emergencies and help managers taking proper measures to treat some possible traffic problems.After analyzing the research resultsboth in China and abroad, this thesis starts a research of road network reliabilityin emergencies which chosestravel time reliability as research object and adoptstraffic simulation and Monte Carlo method taking regional road network of Shaoxing urban areaas an example. Based on simulation software VISSIM, a simulation model of the road network of Shaoxing urban area was built, including 5 highways, 2 national roads, 5 provincial roads, 154 county roads, 30 interchanges and 1327 intersections, and was adjusting by Latin orthogonal test method.This thesis sorts those emergencies according to the effects of those emergencies to the road network, treats those emergencies with different methods on the basis of degree, and starts a deeper research of link traffic characters inemergencies.It uses Monte Carlo method calculating route travel time adjusting the model and establishes link travel time reliability model.Based on this, it gets travel time reliability models of routes, OD pairs and road network, and systematically research travel time reliability of road network in different degrees of events. This thesis uses the adjusted model of travel time reliability to simulate and analyze 2 regional road networks of Shaoxing City and Zhuji City as examples.This thesis researches travel time reliability models of micro(link) and macro(road network) level, and the research results are practical to assess the ability of road network against to emergencies. It is very important to model forms of travel time reliability and parameter correcting.