Car Export Forecast And PCTC Ship Assignment Study

Since the world automobile industry continuous development, the vehicle production and sales volume rapidly recovered and remains at the high level even though the 2008 Y financial crisis impacted the world economics. The car industry has big potential especially in China and other emerging market. The Pure car & truck carrier(PCTC) transportation has been developing along with the automobile trading development. It is different from the violent fluctuation of dry-bulk and container market, the PCTC market is comparatively stable.Basis on several years working experience and combining the theory with practice, the writer utilized the forecasting method of statistic to predict the car export from China. In this paper, basis on statistics of 10 years car export history, the writer adopted grey prediction method, Brown exponential smoothing prediction method and combined forecasting method to predict the general car export from China and the car export volume in each trade line including South America, Persian Gulf and Mediterranean sea.Basis on the exporting volume forecast and demand of PCTC transportation, the written further studied the ship assignment by using multi-linear programing. In this section, the writer set the premise, objective function and constraint condition and calculated the optimizing result for ship assignment in each trade line.