Quantitative Evaluation On Water Resources Shortage Status Of Shandong Province

The main problem in Shandong Province is shortage of water resources, the annually average of total water resources is 30.3 billion m3, and per capita consumption is 322 m3, which is less than 1/6 of the national per capita, and only 1/25 of the world per capita as well. So the water shortage has become a constraint as called "bottleneck"of rapid socio-economic development and building a moderately prosperous society in Shandong Province.In Shandong province, the absolute priority task of reversing current water shortage situation is to recognize the regional water resources shortage state level and put forward targeted solutions.On the bases of actual water resources conditions in Shandong province, this paper adopts experience of domestic and foreign researches to explore influence factors on water shortage status from seven aspects with water resources conditions, drought disaster, social economy, water resources development, water use efficiency, ecological environment and water resources management. The 22 representative indexes are selected to establish index system and evaluation standards to analyze present water shortage status in Shandong province.The variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and entropy weight method are proposed to identify water shortage status in 2013 and 2020 year, as well as comparing with commonly methods calculated results with five levels:Heavy,more mild, mild, Lower,Low.Water shortage recognition results show that:Present Situation of Water Resources in 2013 heavy shortage areas are mainly located in Dezhou, Liaocheng,; shortage areas are mainly located in Jining, Heze, Binzhou; more mild shortage the main distribution area of Jinan, Zibo, Dongying, Weifang, Taian, Laiwu;lower shortage areas are mainly located in Linyi, Zaozhuang, Rizhao, Weihai, Qingdao and Yantai.Compare 2013 and 2020 water shorage recognition result, if in 2020 with the water supply and with water use efficiency, water shortage level city in Shandong province eased compared with the status quo.According to different water shortage status evaluation results, city water shortage types belongs to is analyzed with water-lack, engineering water shortage, quality-induced water shortage, management and the mixed water shortage the cause of water shortage, at last, proposes corresponding countermeasures. Thus the research is important for decision-making and water management.