Accident Risk Assessment And Injured Mechanism Simulation About Pedestrian With Congestion

Lots of activities such as sporting events, economic and cultural communications happen every year. During crowds gather and evacuate in short time, serious injury accident could occur. Although this accident is a small probability issue, the danger to people and country is huge, associating bad social impact. In this context, it is necessary to research factors causing pedestrians crowded, characteristics of congested traffic pedestrian flow. Analyzing the process of pedestrian evacuation, formation mechanism and precaution about pedestrian stampede with congestion is instructive to the design and management of pedestrian facilities.In this paper, the basic theory of the crowd is discussed. The accident risk assessment model and the mechanism about the injured pedestrian are constructed The main contents of this study are as follows.First, macro and micro normal pedestrian flow characteristic are analyzed in this thesis. The factors of pedestrians crowded are analyzed in terms of information exchange, pedestrian quantities, panic analyzed. The phenomenon of clogged arching, aggregation, fast to slow, the zipper effect and interleaving behavior are discussed. Evacuation of pedestrian congestion contains the freedom, the dense and the injury. The emphasis is respectively accident risk assessment in the dense and mechanism in the injury crowd.Second, the level of risk is determined according to risk identification, probability and hazard of the accident. Evaluation system and index weights can be determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process. Accident risk level can be calculated based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. So the AHP-FCE crowd risk assessment model can be constructed. The simulation of pedestrian push-force in evacuation with arched congestion before exit is presented based on cell automata. The generation, absorption, transfer and gather of pedestrian push-force are analyzed. The scalar and vector sum of push-force, absorption coefficient and anti-crush coefficient are introduced to describe the condition for pedestrian facing to push-force in congestion injury mechanism model.Finally, the Shanghai Bund injury accident at New Year’s Eve is discussed according to the AHP-FCE-based risk assessment crowded model. Given the high density of pedestrian evacuation experiments very dangerous, crowded injury accident data is difficult to obtain. Application of the congestion injury mechanism model can be got through simulation. Absorption coefficient, anti-crush coefficient and pedestrian number have a great influence on pedestrian casualties. There are three phases in the system:weak protection, strong protection and complete protection. The injured pedestrian layout is also shown. Precautions about pedestrian injury are proposed based on the infrastructure aspect and the management aspect.